469
FXUS61 KPHI 150754
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM LINGERS NEAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH AWAY
FROM THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE AREA IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. FIRST IS
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL SINK INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE SECOND IS A NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. LITTLE CHANGE IN NATURE IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
FEATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
ASIDE FOR SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR, SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, WHERE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
FURTHER WEST WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE COAST.
TONIGHT, LITTLE IN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS AS SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL, A FEW INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE POCONOS AND
NORTH JERSEY. OTHERWISE, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHILE GRADUALLY GAINING LATITUDE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHALL BEGIN TO SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, WITH MOST OTHER LOCALES REMAINING DRY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. ALSO, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES, WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 20-30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE MID WEEK PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND A SHOT AT SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A BROAD, CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AND OPEN,
EVENTUALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, A
RELATIVELY WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT TO
SEA.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD GRADUALLY NORTHWARD WITH TIME, REACHING
A PEAK IN MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. POPS THEN BEGIN TO LESSEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN (60-90%) WILL BE FOUND ACROSS DELMARVA
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THESE TAPER OFF TOWARD THE NORTH TO A
MERE 20-40% FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. QPF IS AROUND 0.5-1" OF RAIN FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL
NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA (LOCALLY NEAR 1.5" POSSIBLE). NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95 WILL BE LUCKY TO GET 0.1", IF ANYTHING AT ALL. THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE MIDDLE RIGHT AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
WHICH SHOULD EXPERIENCE 0.1-0.25" OR SO, BUT SOME AREAS MAY SEE
A LITTLE MORE OR LESS THAN THAT.
THE RAIN WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE, NOT REALLY AN "ALL DAY
RAIN" TYPE OF SITUATION, RATHER PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, WITH
MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN ESPECIALLY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER WITH AN
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD HELP MIX
DOWN BRIEFLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH. GIVEN THE
RECENT DRYNESS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE SANDY
COASTAL PLAIN, NO FRESH WATER FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS. WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE NEAR 15-25 MPH ON
TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S,
POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 60S IN SPOTS ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A RETURN TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST ON THURSDAY THOUGH. AS THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
LOOSE THEIR GRIP ON THE REGION, WE'LL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF WARMING
OF TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE DRY GIVEN NO
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY, THOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR 80
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND IN THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
70S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THEN DROP TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, FAVORING NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN OCCURRENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE,
OTHERWISE.
TODAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
7-12 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
NEAR KMIV AND KACY. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL INSTANCES
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY SHOWERS NEAR
KMIV AND KACY. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GRADUALLY GO IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ON ALL WATERS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AS LATE AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KT LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FEET.
OUTSIDE OF SCA CONDITIONS, FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-30 KTS. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE MAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GALES IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING
AT THIS TIME. SEAS 5-8 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. FAIR
WEATHER.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, THE WINDS BACK TO EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
AND BREAKING WAVES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A
CONTINUING EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. DUE TO THE WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG WITH BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS THE RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A MODERATE
RISK FOR ALL OF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO
25 MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ451>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ454-455.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...DESILVA
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...DESILVA/STAARMANN
MARINE...DESILVA/STAARMANN
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