043
FXUS61 KPHI 161021
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OFF OF THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT MAKES
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND DOMINATING OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS POSITIONED OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL RETROGRADE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MEANDER OVER
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THICKENING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS MORNING WHERE LATEST RADAR DATA IS NOW INDICATING
THAT THE INITIAL RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE THESE BANDS
OVERSPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST, MUCH OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE
DELMARVA, SOUTH JERSEY AND ALONG THE SHORE SHOULD BE RATHER
BENIGN. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR INCREASE. NORTH AND WEST OF I-95, SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AND RIDGING
FURTHER NORTH. FOR AREAS, NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
AND SOUTH JERSEY, SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER PERIODIC RAIN
BANDS PIVOTING OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY TONIGHT,
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND RAIN BANDS ARE ANTICIPATE TO GRADUALLY PIVOT
FURTHER NORTH AS THE LOW PIVOTS CLOSER TO THE AREA. AT TIMES,
INSTANCES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL NEAR
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA WHERE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER. THROUGH TONIGHT, GENERALLY UP TO ONE OF INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. LESSER
AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
ALSO, EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH, HIGHEST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH CAN BE FOUND AROUND THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-40 MPH
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, THOUGH A BRIEF GUST TO 45 MPH IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTION. WINDS DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LAXES.
LASTLY, IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S
THANKS TO THE COOL, SHOWERY WEATHER IN PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE THOUGH IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ON SHOWER CHANCES
WITH THE COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
VIRGINIA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH WITH TIME. EVEN STILL, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH MORE SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE HEADING FARTHER NORTH. HOW SOON THE RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE LOW DEGRADES, BUT THE
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (POPS 30-40 PERCENT) WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES LOOK THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WON'T COOL
MUCH, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOW-MID 60S (50S OVER THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ). WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BECOMING
MORE PREVALENT ON THURSDAY AND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SHOWER
COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WARM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER. THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME SHOULD FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. MONDAY WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT MOST LOCATIONS STILL REMAINING BELOW 80.
THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CLOUD BASES LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
BUT SHOULD ULTIMATELY REMAIN VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THINKING
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY AROUND 10-16
KT SUSTAINED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMIV AND KACY WHICH MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25-30 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...VFR EARLY OUTSIDE OF KMIV AND KACY, OTHERWISE A
GRADUAL LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATUS
MOVES IN AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRIMARILY VFR AT KRDG/KABE UNTIL LATE AS STEADY RAIN
STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR KMIV AND KACY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STILL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT
EGG INLET TO FENWICK ISLAND UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE GALE WARNINGS END, A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THOSE WATERS.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN
GALE WARNING AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-32 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS OF 4-8
FEET THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 6-10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY HOWEVER SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 5
TO 7 FEET THROUGH THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES INCREASING TO 4 TO 6 FEET WITH A FEW 7
FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST. FURTHERMORE, A
STRONG 9 FOOT 9 SECOND EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
SWELL DOES SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET AT 8 SECONDS, BUT WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG. AS A RESULT, A HIGH RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT
FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE WATER ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY TO BUILD UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE ALONG THE TIDAL WATERWAYS ALONG THE DELAWARE
COAST. AS A RESULT, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORELINES AND TIDAL WATERWAYS OF KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE DURING THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/MPS
SHORT TERM...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI
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