295
FXUS61 KPHI 161736
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OFF OF THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATING OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC NORTH OF NEW
YORK STATE WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND THEN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHERE IT WILL MEANDER.
THE FIRST WAVES OF SHOWERS IMPACTED DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY, AND THESE INITIAL
WAVES WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THEN WAVES OF SHOWERS
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE OVER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WHERE 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL
FALL DURING THIS TIME. NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, UP
TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.
EAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH NORTH AND WEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS,
AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE
DELAWARE VALLEY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, THOUGH
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ON SHOWER CHANCES
WITH THE COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
VIRGINIA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH WITH TIME. EVEN STILL, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH MORE SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE HEADING FARTHER NORTH. HOW SOON THE RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE LOW DEGRADES, BUT THE
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (POPS 30-40 PERCENT) WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES LOOK THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WON'T COOL
MUCH, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOW-MID 60S (50S
OVER THE POCONOS AND NW NJ). WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT ON THURSDAY AND WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SHOWER COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WARM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER. THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME SHOULD FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. MONDAY WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT MOST LOCATIONS STILL REMAINING BELOW 80.
THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KMIV/KACY IN RA. E-NE WINDS GENERALLY 8
TO 12 KT, THOUGH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT
KMIV/KACY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR THROUGHOUT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN, THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY NOT LOWER TO SUB-VFR AT
KRDG/KABE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AT KRDG/KABE,
AND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS 15 TO 20
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT KMIV/KACY. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KMIV/KACY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND RAIN. NE WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LIKELY AT
KACY. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KMIV/KACY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STILL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
A COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY UNTIL 6
PM, AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO FENWICK
ISLAND UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO SANDY HOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE GALE WARNINGS END, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR THOSE
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS
WHERE THE GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
ELSEWHERE. SEAS 6 TO 10 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FEET
TONIGHT, AND THEN TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND FOG. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5
FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES INCREASING TO 4 TO 6 FEET WITH A FEW 7
FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST. FURTHERMORE, A
STRONG 9 FOOT 9 SECOND EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
SWELL DOES SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET AT 8 SECONDS, BUT WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG. AS A RESULT, A HIGH RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT
FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE WATER ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY TO BUILD UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE ALONG THE TIDAL WATERWAYS ALONG THE DELAWARE
COAST. AS A RESULT, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORELINES AND TIDAL WATERWAYS OF KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE DURING THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ453>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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