984
FXUS61 KPHI 171506
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1106 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY WHILE WEAKENING BEFORE TRACKING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAKENING COASTAL STORM WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL LESSEN
INTO TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE.
A BROAD, CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AND OPEN,
EVENTUALLY EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE COASTAL LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF OUR REGION WHILE WEAKENING, THEN
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY,
GENERALLY MOVING INLAND AND GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN (60-80%)
WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78. THE RAIN WILL BE SHOWERY
IN NATURE, NOT REALLY AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SITUATION,
RATHER PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AT TIMES. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN ESPECIALLY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER WITH AN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD HELP MIX DOWN BRIEFLY STRONGER
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE SANDY COASTAL PLAIN, NO FRESH WATER
FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED.
QPF IS AROUND 0.5-1.0" OF RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN SOUTHEAST
OF I-95. NORTH AND WEST OF I-95, QPF IS MAINLY 0.1-0.25" AT
MOST. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE MIDDLE RIGHT AROUND THE I-95
CORRIDOR, WHICH SHOULD EXPERIENCE 0.25" OR SO, BUT SOME AREAS
MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE OR LESS THAN THAT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE NEAR 10-20 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY NEAR
5-10 MPH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL BE NOTHING MORE
THAN AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING,
BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DRASTIC IMPROVEMENTS FOR ALL AREAS BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR COASTAL AREAS, WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. CLEAR SKIES
AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH A BRIEF
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. THE IS ONE
FEATURE TO NOTE THOUGH, WHICH IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DEPENDING ON
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, AREAS NORTH AND WEST MAY END
UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LACKS
ANY MOISTURE, SO SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH, THERE WILL BE A STRONG PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL POUR INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S
FOR MOST, 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 60S NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING
FROM CANADA. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER QUEBEC ON
SATURDAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING STILL EXTENDING WEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY NICE
WEEKEND OVERALL, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP ALOFT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND THE
RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUESDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW THANKS
TO STRONG RIDGING REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY..GENERALLY PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING
IN MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. NE WINDS
10-15 KTS PEAKING THIS MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY LESSENING AFTER
18Z. GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS EARLY, MAINLY FROM NEAR I-95 AND
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OUTLINED IN THE TAFS.
TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE
LATE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 5-10 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT FLAG FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN THROUGH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET OR MORE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME FOG MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY
DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FAIR WEATHER.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. BREAKING WAVES OF 3-6 FEET IN THE
SURF ZONE WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 6-8 SECONDS. AS A
RESULT, HAVE MAINTAINED A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TODAY.
FOR THURSDAY, NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FEET. EASTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST AROUND 6-8
SECONDS. GIVEN MORE SHORE PARALLEL WINDS AND DECREASING
SURF/WAVE HEIGHTS, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUSSEX COUNTY, DE
THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE BACK BAYS OF REHOBOTH BAY,
LITTLE ASSAWOMAN BAY, AND THE INDIAN RIVER BAY INLET WITH
TODAY'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ALSO, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR OCEAN COUNTY, NJ WITH THESE EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE FOR BOTH THE OCEAN FRONT AND THE BACK BAYS OF
BARNEGAT BAY. FUTURE EXTENSIONS OF ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED,
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY DRAINS OUT OF THE BACK BAYS.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND WITHIN THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY, SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH EACH OF THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
ADVISORIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY, TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, AND THE
EASTERN SHORES OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NJZ020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...COOPER/DESILVA
LONG TERM...COOPER/DESILVA
AVIATION...DESILVA/STAARMANN
MARINE...DESILVA/STAARMANN/PO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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