154  
FXUS61 KPHI 091427  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
1027 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH  
TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A  
COASTAL STORM WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IS EXPECTED  
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
EXPANSIVE AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN COMPLETE  
CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY SITUATED  
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY, BEFORE  
SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, CLEAR  
SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES AROUND 5-15 MPH CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SOME PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN  
THE POCONOS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WILL BE RATHER  
SPORADIC IN NATURE AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT  
WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO  
MID 60S WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S!  
 
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM AS  
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. WITH  
THE CRISP CANADIAN AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES, ALL  
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL EQUATE TO AN EXCEPTIONAL NIGHT FOR  
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. SUBSEQUENTLY, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO FALL AS FAR AS THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS, AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY  
WHERE FREEZE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNINGS.  
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF INTERIOR AND  
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S  
WHERE FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FOR THE IMMEDIATE URBAN  
CORRIDOR AND DELMARVA, LOWS WILL PRIMARILY RANGE IN UPPER 30S  
TO MID 40S. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST  
OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ONSHORE, KEEPING TEMPS  
ALONG THE COAST WARMER IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE  
THEME AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST  
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, THOUGH A FEW  
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAIN.  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON  
FRIDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE  
SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY FRIDAY  
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH  
SATURDAY.  
 
BY FRIDAY, COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE  
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION,  
AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE  
MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT  
ONSHORE, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH IN  
FROM THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY. CIRRUS WILL LIKELY ALSO BEGIN  
ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS  
NIGHT THANKS TO ONSHORE WINDS ADVECTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND  
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY  
MORNING ARE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, THOUGH SOME SHELTERED AREAS  
NORTH OF I-78 COULD DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN WITH  
FROST DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. TONIGHT'S FREEZE IN THOSE AREAS WILL  
LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FROST HAZARDS THOUGH.  
 
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH  
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN  
MOST AREAS. WHILE MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY DURING  
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
COASTAL PLAIN SE OF I-95 INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL  
BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY CLOSER TO  
THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA  
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS STORM IS  
ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS  
OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM AND ITS ULTIMATE DEGREE OF  
IMPACTS. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FROM COASTAL FLOODING,  
BEACH EROSION, STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY  
RAIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL  
ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.  
 
THINGS START TO GO DOWNHILL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW  
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEING  
OVERSPREADING THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, WHILE AREAS  
IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY/POCONOS/NORTHERN NJ LIKELY STAY DRY  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE  
WATER AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS GETTING NEAR  
40-50 MPH BY DAYBREAK.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WHEN OUR AREA LIKELY EXPERIENCES  
THE BRUNT OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE COASTAL STORM. IF THE CURRENT  
TRACK HOLDS AND THE COASTAL STORM DOES END UP JUST OFFSHORE,  
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SUSTAINED NEAR 30-40 MPH (PERHAPS  
NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY NEAR  
60 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY  
NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE  
WELL INTO MONDAY. GUSTS UPWARD OF 30-50 MPH MAY EXTEND INLAND TO  
ABOUT THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WIND HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN  
A FUTURE UPDATE.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST, AND A SLIGHT  
(2/4) RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE FOR THE I-95  
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT. WE ARE NOT FULLY IN THE QPF PERIOD YET, BUT THE WPC  
LONGER-RANGE RAINFALL PRODUCTS SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCHES  
OF RAIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF  
3-5 INCHES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SLGT RISK  
AREA. NBM PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES OF RAIN FOR NEW JERSEY AND  
DELMARVA IS ABOUT 40-60%, WHICH IS ACTUALLY QUITE HIGH BEING 4-5  
DAYS OUT. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WATER  
PILING UP ALONG THE COAST, WITH MODERATE TO EVEN MAJOR COASTAL  
FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY (MORE ON THAT BELOW IN THE  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD SECTION).  
 
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN  
THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW, EVEN BEING WITHIN 4 DAYS OF THE  
EVENT. THE SETUP IS OVERALL VERY COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL  
BE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY, AND  
ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A  
SURFACE HIGH OVER NOVA SCOTIA, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES, AND EVEN DISTANT TROPICAL STORM JERRY. A CLOSER AND  
SLOWER EVOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHILE A  
TRACK FURTHER AWAY STILL WILL LIKELY BRING HAZARDS, THOUGH NOT  
AS SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST BRIEFING PACKAGES AND  
FORECAST UPDATES AS THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CHANGE.  
 
THINGS LOOK TO QUIET DOWN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE  
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH RATHER BENIGN WEATHER AND SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES FOR MID-OCTOBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TODAY...VFR/SKC. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT. HIGH  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. A FEW LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE NEAR KACY LATE.  
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS, BECOMING CALM AT TIMES.  
HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
 
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY  
TOWARD THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS AND  
PERIODS OF RAIN. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY IS NOW IN EFFECT  
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE  
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON  
AND TONIGHT.  
 
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT  
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO  
SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-  
NORTHEAST AROUND 10-20 KT. SEAS AROUND 3-6 FEET THROUGH  
TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF SCA CONDITIONS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. FAIR  
WEATHER.  
 
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING, POTENTIAL TO ADVISORY  
LEVELS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL  
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY  
NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY. SEAS BUILDING 12-20 FEET. SHOWERS AND SEA SPRAY  
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES (KING TIDES) AND  
MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL  
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE  
ATLANTIC COAST AND DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO  
FORECAST WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, MAINLY FOR ATLANTIC,  
CAPE MAY, AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN NJ AND SUSSEX AND KENT  
COUNTIES IN DE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TO  
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. THE SATURDAY HIGH TIDE COULD ALSO  
EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, MAINLY NEAR SOUTHERN CAPE MAY  
COUNTY, SOUTHERN COASTAL DELAWARE AND DELAWARE BAY, BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS AT THE MOMENT AND THE ADVISORY WAS  
NOT EXTENDED TO SATURDAY JUST YET.  
 
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A  
STRONG COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES IN  
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF THIS STORM WITH REGARD TO SEVERITY OF  
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS LOCALLY, HOWEVER WE ARE GROWING  
INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS  
FROM THIS STORM ALONG OUR COASTS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST  
THREAT OF IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, AND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL  
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR THE HIGH  
TIDES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE,  
MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NJ WERE ADDED TO THE COASTAL  
FLOOD WATCH.  
 
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ENTIRE NEW  
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
COAST, DELAWARE BAY, BACK BAYS, AND TIDAL WATERWAYS SHOULD  
REMAIN ALERT FOR FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY  
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
PAZ054-055-062.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-061-  
101>106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ021>025.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
NJZ001-007.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ008>010-015.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
NJZ013-014-020-026-027.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR DEZ002>004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ430.  
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ431-450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>453.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ454-455.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN  
NEAR TERM...DESILVA  
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN  
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN  
AVIATION...DESILVA/STAARMANN  
MARINE...DESILVA/STAARMANN  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN  
 
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