507  
FXUS61 KPHI 091729  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
129 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH  
TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A  
COASTAL STORM WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IS EXPECTED  
TO AFFECT THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WITH THE HIGH SETTLING CLOSER TO THE AREA, SHOULD HAVE CLEAR  
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM  
THE URBAN CENTERS. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A WARM BIAS WITH  
PATTERNS LIKE THIS, SO HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE  
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH, ADDED LEHIGH COUNTY TO THE FREEZE  
WARNING. ALSO ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH  
JERSEY. THIS IS PRIMARILY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PINE BARRENS WHICH  
WILL LIKELY BE MUCH COLDER THAN SW JERSEY OR COASTAL AREAS.  
 
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT OFF SHORE BY MID DAY FRIDAY.  
CONSEQUENTLY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO EASTERLY AND  
SOUTHEASTERLY RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS  
TOMORROW A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THURSDAY.  
 
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER  
AS THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD  
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL FROST OR  
FREEZE CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
 
 
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE  
THEME AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST  
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, THOUGH A FEW  
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAIN.  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON  
FRIDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE  
SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY FRIDAY  
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH  
SATURDAY.  
 
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH  
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN  
MOST AREAS. WHILE MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY DURING  
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
COASTAL PLAIN SE OF I-95 INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL  
BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY CLOSER TO  
THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA  
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS STORM IS  
ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS  
OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM AND ITS ULTIMATE DEGREE OF  
IMPACTS. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FROM COASTAL FLOODING,  
BEACH EROSION, STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY  
RAIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL  
ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.  
 
THINGS START TO GO DOWNHILL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW  
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEING  
OVERSPREADING THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, WHILE AREAS  
IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY/POCONOS/NORTHERN NJ LIKELY STAY DRY  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE  
WATER AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS GETTING NEAR  
40-50 MPH BY DAYBREAK.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WHEN OUR AREA LIKELY EXPERIENCES  
THE BRUNT OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE COASTAL STORM. IF THE CURRENT  
TRACK HOLDS AND THE COASTAL STORM DOES END UP JUST OFFSHORE,  
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SUSTAINED NEAR 30-40 MPH (PERHAPS  
NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY NEAR  
60 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY  
NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE  
WELL INTO MONDAY. GUSTS UPWARD OF 30-50 MPH MAY EXTEND INLAND TO  
ABOUT THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WIND HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN  
A FUTURE UPDATE.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST, AND A SLIGHT  
(2/4) RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE FOR THE I-95  
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT. WE ARE NOT FULLY IN THE QPF PERIOD YET, BUT THE WPC  
LONGER-RANGE RAINFALL PRODUCTS SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCHES  
OF RAIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF  
3-5 INCHES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SLGT RISK  
AREA. NBM PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES OF RAIN FOR NEW JERSEY AND  
DELMARVA IS ABOUT 40-60%, WHICH IS ACTUALLY QUITE HIGH BEING 4-5  
DAYS OUT. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WATER  
PILING UP ALONG THE COAST, WITH MODERATE TO EVEN MAJOR COASTAL  
FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY (MORE ON THAT BELOW IN THE  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD SECTION).  
 
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN  
THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW, EVEN BEING WITHIN 4 DAYS OF THE  
EVENT. THE SETUP IS OVERALL VERY COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL  
BE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY, AND  
ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A  
SURFACE HIGH OVER NOVA SCOTIA, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES, AND EVEN DISTANT TROPICAL STORM JERRY. A CLOSER AND  
SLOWER EVOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHILE A  
TRACK FURTHER AWAY STILL WILL LIKELY BRING HAZARDS, THOUGH NOT  
AS SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST BRIEFING PACKAGES AND  
FORECAST UPDATES AS THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CHANGE.  
 
THINGS LOOK TO QUIET DOWN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE  
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH RATHER BENIGN WEATHER AND SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES FOR MID-OCTOBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL  
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT AGL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z. WINDS  
AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NNE, DECREASING AND SHIFTING MORE TO THE  
ENE AFTER 00Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL  
CLOUDS. WINDS FAVORING THE SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY,  
COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY  
TOWARD THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS AND  
PERIODS OF RAIN. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ON THE WATERS, WINDS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED BELOW 25 KTS AND ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH TOMORROW. FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL  
WATERS FROM THE MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD, SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED  
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES.  
 
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE THEY  
DO, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH  
FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING, POTENTIAL TO ADVISORY  
LEVELS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL  
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY  
NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY. SEAS BUILDING 12-20 FEET. SHOWERS AND SEA SPRAY  
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES (KING TIDES) AND  
MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL  
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE  
ATLANTIC COAST AND DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO  
FORECAST WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, MAINLY FOR ATLANTIC,  
CAPE MAY, AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN NJ AND SUSSEX AND KENT  
COUNTIES IN DE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TO  
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. THE SATURDAY HIGH TIDE COULD ALSO  
EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, MAINLY NEAR SOUTHERN CAPE MAY  
COUNTY, SOUTHERN COASTAL DELAWARE AND DELAWARE BAY, BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS AT THE MOMENT AND THE ADVISORY WAS  
NOT EXTENDED TO SATURDAY JUST YET.  
 
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A  
STRONG COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES IN  
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF THIS STORM WITH REGARD TO SEVERITY OF  
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS LOCALLY, HOWEVER WE ARE GROWING  
INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS  
FROM THIS STORM ALONG OUR COASTS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST  
THREAT OF IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, AND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL  
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR THE HIGH  
TIDES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE,  
MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NJ WERE ADDED TO THE COASTAL  
FLOOD WATCH.  
 
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ENTIRE NEW  
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
COAST, DELAWARE BAY, BACK BAYS, AND TIDAL WATERWAYS SHOULD  
REMAIN ALERT FOR FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY  
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
PAZ054-055-061-062.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ021>025.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
NJZ001-007.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ008>010-015-  
017>022-027.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
NJZ013-014-020-026-027.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR DEZ002>004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ430.  
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ431-450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>453.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ454-455.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN  
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON  
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN  
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN  
AVIATION...JOHNSON/STAARMANN  
MARINE...JOHNSON/STAARMANN  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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