772  
FXUS61 KPHI 100047  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
847 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH  
TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A  
COASTAL STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT  
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS  
IMPROVE AS WE GET TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
WITH THE HIGH SETTLING CLOSER TO THE AREA, A CLEAR SKY AND  
DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG  
WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN  
CENTERS. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A WARM BIAS WITH PATTERNS LIKE  
THIS, SO HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR MIN  
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH, PREVIOUSLY ADDED LEHIGH COUNTY TO THE  
FREEZE WARNING. ALSO ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTH JERSEY. THIS IS PRIMARILY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PINE BARRENS  
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MUCH COLDER THAN SW JERSEY OR COASTAL  
AREAS.  
 
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.  
CONSEQUENTLY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO EASTERLY AND  
SOUTHEASTERLY RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS  
FRIDAY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THURSDAY. SOME CLOUDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
COASTAL PLAIN.  
 
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD  
COVER AS THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE CLOUD COVER  
SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL  
FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH  
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN  
MOST AREAS. WHILE MOST ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE  
DAYTIME SATURDAY, RAIN WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, MOVING  
INTO AREAS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SE OF I-95 THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME,  
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
 
THINGS REALLY START TO GO DOWNHILL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL  
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
OVERSPREADING THE AREA, WITH AROUND A 60-80% CHANCE OF RAIN REGION-  
WIDE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER LOWER DELMARVA  
AND THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST, THOUGH RAINFALL RATES SHOULD STAY  
BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR (MORE ON STORM-TOTAL  
RAINFALL IN THE LONG-TERM). WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY  
OVER THE WATER AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS  
GETTING NEAR 40-50 MPH BY DAYBREAK.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE  
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY  
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG A  
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN  
AND LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF  
THE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM AND ITS ULTIMATE DEGREE OF  
IMPACTS. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FROM COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH  
EROSION, STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE  
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WHEN OUR AREA LIKELY EXPERIENCES THE  
BRUNT OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE COASTAL STORM. IF THE CURRENT TRACK  
HOLDS AND THE COASTAL STORM DOES END UP JUST OFFSHORE OR EVEN MAKING  
LANDFALL OVER DELMARVA, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SUSTAINED NEAR 30-  
40 MPH (PERHAPS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) WITH GUSTS  
POSSIBLY NEAR 60 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE STRONG WINDS TO  
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. GUSTS UPWARD OF 30-50 MPH MAY EXTEND  
INLAND TO ABOUT THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME  
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG STRONG WINDS LAST, THERE IS AT LEAST HIGH  
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT COUNTIES BORDERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL  
EITHER SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AT/ABOVE CRITERIA  
FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING. AS A RESULT, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH  
WIND WATCH FOR THE COASTAL STRIP IN BOTH NJ AND DE, AND THEIR  
RESPECTIVE COUNTIES AS PERIODS OF 40+ MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR  
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO  
SEE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE INLAND COUNTIES, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST, AND A SLIGHT (2/4)  
RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR  
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE  
NOT FULLY IN THE QPF PERIOD YET, BUT THE WPC LONGER-RANGE RAINFALL  
PRODUCTS SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE  
AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA. THE LATEST NBM QMD MEAN  
FORECAST HAS AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND  
DELAWARE COAST, WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. WHILE THAT  
SOUNDS LIKE A LOT, IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS  
WILL BE FALLING OVER A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN QUITE  
DRY AS WELL. GIVEN THIS, THE THINKING IS THAT FLOODING DUE TO  
HEAVY RAIN ALONE WILL BE LIMITED TO POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN  
AREAS. HOWEVER, THAT MUCH RAINFALL COULD EXACERBATE IMPACTS NEAR  
THE COAST WITH MODERATE AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING  
ONGOING. SIGNIFICANT HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG  
NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTING IN WATER PILING UP ALONG THE COAST.  
 
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW, EVEN BEING WITHIN A FEW DAYS OF THE EVENT.  
THE SETUP IS OVERALL VERY COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE  
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY, AND ITS  
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE  
HIGH OVER NOVA SCOTIA, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AND  
EVEN DISTANT TROPICAL STORM JERRY. A CLOSER AND SLOWER EVOLUTION  
WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHILE A TRACK FURTHER AWAY  
STILL WILL LIKELY BRING HAZARDS, THOUGH NOT AS SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO  
THE LATEST BRIEFING PACKAGES AND FORECAST UPDATES AS THE FORECAST  
CONTINUES TO CHANGE.  
 
THINGS LOOK TO QUIET DOWN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM  
PULLS AWAY WITH RATHER BENIGN WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES  
FOR MID-OCTOBER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING  
LOCALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOME CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET AGL  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INCREASE,  
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT  
NIGHT FROM ABOUT THE I-95 TERMINALS ON SOUTH/EAST. NORTHEAST TO  
EAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY,  
THEN TENDING TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS  
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY...STARTING OUT VFR THOUGH CONDITIONS LIKELY COME DOWN LATE  
IN THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA,  
POTENTIALLY BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH JERSEY TERMINALS  
AND POSSIBLY KPHL/KILG. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT KACY.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND  
LOWER CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS  
AT THE SOUTH JERSEY TERMINALS. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT AT  
KACY, 20-25 KT AT THE I-95 TERMINALS AND KMIV, AND 15-20 KT AT THE  
LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MODERATE RAIN  
MOVING THROUGH AND GUSTY WINDS. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT  
POSSIBLE AT KACY. GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 25-35 KT  
EXPECTED AT THE I-95 TERMINALS AND KMIV, WITH 20-30 KT ANTICIPATED  
WITHIN THE LEHIGH VALLEY.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.  
WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.  
 
TUESDAY...CONDITONS IMPROVE BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND  
GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 8 PM, SEAS ARE AT 4 FEET JUST OFF THE DELAWARE COAST AND  
2-4 FEET FARTHER NORTH. WINDS CONTINUE BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE  
THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOME MORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
AND IT IS MARGINAL, OPTED TO CANCEL THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY.  
 
THE CONDITIONS THEREFORE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE, WITH  
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5  
TO 7 FEET WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST TO AROUND 20-30  
KT.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR ALL MARINE ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER DELAWARE  
BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 35-45 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 50-55 KT EXPECTED  
WITHIN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY. GALE  
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER BAY AS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER.  
DANGEROUS SEAS UPWARD OF 12 TO 18 FEET EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH  
TIDE, MAINLY FOR ATLANTIC, CAPE MAY, AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN  
NJ AND SUSSEX AND KENT COUNTIES IN DE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES  
REMAIN IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. THE SATURDAY HIGH  
TIDE COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, MAINLY NEAR  
SOUTHERN CAPE MAY COUNTY, SOUTHERN COASTAL DELAWARE AND DELAWARE  
BAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS AT THE MOMENT AND THE  
ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED TO SATURDAY JUST YET.  
 
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A  
STRONG COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES IN  
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF THIS STORM WITH REGARD TO SEVERITY OF  
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS LOCALLY, HOWEVER WE ARE GROWING  
INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS  
FROM THIS STORM ALONG OUR COASTS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST  
THREAT OF IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, AND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL  
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR THE HIGH  
TIDES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE,  
MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NJ WERE ADDED TO THE COASTAL  
FLOOD WATCH.  
 
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ENTIRE NEW  
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
COAST, DELAWARE BAY, BACK BAYS, AND TIDAL WATERWAYS SHOULD  
REMAIN ALERT FOR FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY  
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  
 
 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ021>025.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
FOR NJZ013-014-020-022>027.  
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ008>010-015-  
017>022-027.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR DEZ002>004.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
FOR DEZ003-004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ430.  
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ431-450>455.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN  
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON  
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN  
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN  
AVIATION...GORSE/HOEFLICH  
MARINE...GORSE/HOEFLICH/JOHNSON  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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