607  
FXUS61 KPHI 101214  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
814 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A  
COASTAL STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE  
REGION BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT TO SEA.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION DURING  
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
THE CHILLIEST MORNING OF THE SEASON IS ONGOING AS TEMPERATURES  
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S OUTSIDE OF THE  
IMMEDIATE URBAN CORRIDOR, DELMARVA, AND COASTAL AREAS WHICH  
REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES  
REMAIN UNCHANGED AND ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM TODAY.  
 
VIRTUALLY, TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACT AS THE 'CALM' BEFORE THE  
STORM. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND  
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE  
REMAINING SITUATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO,  
RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE RESULTING IN MODERATING  
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED  
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM  
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA BUT  
OVERALL SHOULD BE NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.  
 
BY TONIGHT, AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING  
COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO FAN INTO THE MID-  
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING  
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES AT BAY. AS A RESULT, LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE  
IN TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN. ASIDE FOR A STRAY SHOWER LATE, DRY CONDITIONS  
WILL PREVAIL.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH  
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN  
MOST AREAS. WHILE MOST ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE  
DAYTIME SATURDAY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO  
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, MOVING INTO AREAS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN  
SE OF I-95 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
INCREASE SOME, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
 
THINGS REALLY START TO GO DOWNHILL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A  
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE AREA, WITH AROUND A 70-90% CHANCE OF  
RAIN REGION-WIDE. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE  
WATER AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS GETTING NEAR  
40-50 MPH BY DAYBREAK.  
 
***SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM A STRONG COASTAL STORM  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY***  
 
OVERVIEW: WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE ANTICIPATED  
DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM NEAR THE  
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING  
SATURDAY. THIS STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT  
NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL  
BE FROM COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION, DUNE BREACHING, STRONG  
TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR  
THE ATLANTIC COAST.  
 
WHAT HAS CHANGED: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE  
FORECAST OR MESSAGING FOR THE STORM WITH THIS UPDATE. THERE  
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS  
OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM AND ITS ULTIMATE DEGREE OF  
IMPACTS. THERE ARE STILL 2 POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS, WHICH ARE MOST  
EVIDENT IN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL  
RUNS. A STRONGER STORM THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL  
RESULT IN MUCH MORE SEVERE IMPACTS (SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS  
SOLUTION). A SOMEWHAT WEAKER STORM THAT TRACKS FARTHER OFFSHORE  
WILL RESULT IN LESS SEVERE, BUT STILL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT  
IMPACTS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO  
STRUGGLE AND VARY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT  
ACTUALLY FORMS A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOMETIME  
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WATCHES REMAIN  
IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN  
TIMING, SEVERITY, AND INLAND EXTENT OF IMPACTS.  
 
COASTAL STORM FORECAST DETAILS...  
 
THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WHEN OUR AREA LIKELY  
EXPERIENCES THE BRUNT OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE COASTAL STORM. IF  
THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS AND THE COASTAL STORM DOES END UP JUST  
OFFSHORE OR EVEN MAKING LANDFALL OVER DELMARVA, STRONG WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED, SUSTAINED NEAR 30-40 MPH (PERHAPS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE COAST) WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY NEAR 60-70 MPH ALONG  
THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EARLY MONDAY.  
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO  
MONDAY. GUSTS UPWARD OF 30-50 MPH MAY EXTEND INLAND TO ABOUT THE  
I-95 CORRIDOR AND PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA. WHILE THERE IS STILL  
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG STRONG WINDS LAST, THERE IS AT  
LEAST HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT COUNTIES BORDERING THE  
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL EITHER SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT WIND  
GUSTS AT/ABOVE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING. AS A RESULT,  
THE HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NJ  
AND DE, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTIES AS PERIODS OF 40+ MPH  
SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ARE  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WIND  
ADVISORY FOR MORE INLAND COUNTIES, BUT WILL WAIT TO ISSUE  
ANYTHING UNTIL CONFIDENCE ON INLAND EXTENT OF THE WINDS IS  
HIGHER. LONG STORY SHORT, POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE ARE  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST, AND A SLIGHT  
(2/4) RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE FOR THE I-95  
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS OUR  
ENTIRE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA NEAR THE COAST. WHILE THAT  
SOUNDS LIKE A LOT, IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS  
WILL BE FALLING OVER A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN QUITE  
DRY AS WELL. GIVEN THIS, THE THINKING IS THAT FLOODING DUE TO  
HEAVY RAIN ALONE WILL BE LIMITED TO POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN  
AREAS. HOWEVER, THAT MUCH RAINFALL COULD EXACERBATE IMPACTS NEAR  
THE COAST WITH MODERATE AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING  
ONGOING. SIGNIFICANT HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG  
NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTING IN WATER PILING UP ALONG THE COAST.  
 
THE SETUP IS OVERALL VERY COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE  
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY, AND  
ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A  
SURFACE HIGH OVER NOVA SCOTIA, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES, AND EVEN DISTANT TROPICAL STORM JERRY. THE EXTENT AND  
SEVERITY OF IMPACTS IN OUR AREA WILL BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE  
EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. STAY TUNED  
TO THE LATEST BRIEFING PACKAGES AND FORECAST UPDATES AS THE  
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL STORM WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY  
TUESDAY, BUT IT'S REMNANT LOW COULD STILL LINGER IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE COAST YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOMEWHAT  
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT  
TO SEA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, BROAD AND  
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION. ITS COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE  
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER  
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TODAY...VFR. CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF  
SCT/BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NORTHEAST  
WINDS INITIALLY, WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND  
5-10 KT. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR WITH BKN CEILINGS AROUND 3500-4000 FEET.  
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND  
5 KT OR LESS, BECOMING VARIABLE/CALM AT TIMES. MODERATE-HIGH  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY...STARTING OUT VFR THOUGH CONDITIONS LIKELY COME DOWN  
LATE IN THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA,  
POTENTIALLY BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH JERSEY  
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KPHL/KILG. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20  
KT AT KACY.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE  
RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR  
RESTRICTIONS AT THE SOUTH JERSEY TERMINALS. NORTHEAST WIND  
GUSTS 25-30 KT AT KACY, 20-25 KT AT THE I-95 TERMINALS AND KMIV,  
AND 15-20 KT AT THE LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH AND GUSTY WINDS.  
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE AT KACY. GUSTS OUT OF  
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 25-35 KT EXPECTED AT THE I-95 TERMINALS AND  
KMIV, WITH 20-30 KT ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE LEHIGH VALLEY.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND LOW  
CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-25 KT OUT OF THE  
NORTH/NORTHEAST.  
 
TUESDAY...CONDITONS IMPROVE BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
WIND GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. EASTERLY  
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE EAST-  
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15 KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH  
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE, WITH  
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5  
TO 7 FEET WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST TO AROUND 20-30  
KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE  
THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER DELAWARE  
BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 35-45 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 50-55 KT EXPECTED  
WITHIN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY.  
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER BAY AS WINDS SHOULD BE  
LIGHTER. DANGEROUS SEAS UPWARD OF 15 TO 20 FEET EXPECTED.  
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,  
THOUGH GALE FORCE WINDS MAY LINGER AS THE STORM WEAKENS. PERIODS  
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SEA SPRAY RESTRICTING VISIBILITY  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH  
TIDE, MAINLY FOR ATLANTIC, CAPE MAY, AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN  
NJ AND SUSSEX AND KENT COUNTIES IN DE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED  
THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SATURDAY HIGH  
TIDE. AS A RESULT, THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW CONTINUES  
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.  
 
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL  
FLOODING IMPACTS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG  
COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES IN POTENTIAL  
OUTCOMES OF THIS STORM WITH REGARD TO SEVERITY OF COASTAL FLOOD  
IMPACTS LOCALLY, HOWEVER WE REMAIN VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ALONG OUR  
COASTS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST THREAT OF IMPACTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND  
DELAWARE, AND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN  
EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR THE HIGH TIDES SUNDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG  
THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES DUE TO THE VERY  
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. INTERESTS ALONG THE  
ATLANTIC COAST, DELAWARE BAY, BACK BAYS, AND TIDAL WATERWAYS  
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING THIS  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  
 
 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-  
062.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ021>025.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
FOR NJZ013-014-020-022>027.  
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ008>010-015-  
017>022-027.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR DEZ002>004.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
FOR DEZ003-004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ430.  
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ431-450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
ANZ451>455.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN  
NEAR TERM...DESILVA  
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN  
LONG TERM...STAARMANN  
AVIATION...DESILVA/HOEFLICH  
MARINE...DESILVA/HOEFLICH  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAARMANN/AKL  
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