006  
FXUS61 KPHI 102341  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
741 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH  
SATURDAY. A COASTAL STORM AFFECTS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO PARTS OF OUR  
AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE STORM  
WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING  
BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
IT'LL LIKELY BE THE BEST WEATHER (EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD), OF THE  
NEXT SEVERAL, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY IN CHARGE TONIGHT.  
WE ARE ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH, SO ONSHORE FLOW HAS  
COMMENCED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM  
HERE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE THICKER CLOUDS  
MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE POCONO REGION AS DRY AIR REMAINS.  
A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS NEAR  
THE SHORE AREAS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, SO WE'LL GO ALONG WITH SOME  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VERY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN  
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 40S N/W AND LOW/MID 50S S/E.  
 
THE HIGH WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE  
FLOW WILL BRING CLOUD COVER TO ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. AGAIN,  
LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT, SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING IN SOME SPRINKLES OR  
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHILE OTHERS ARE DRY. WE'LL COMPROMISE  
WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. IN  
ADDITION, SLOWLY INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY  
IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL START THE DAY 5 TO 10 MPH THEN BECOME  
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. GUSTS WILL BE 20 MPH AT TIMES BUT 20  
TO 30 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE SHORE AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THINGS REALLY START TO GO DOWNHILL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A  
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE AREA, WITH AROUND A 70-90% CHANCE OF  
RAIN REGION-WIDE. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE  
WATER AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS GETTING NEAR  
40-50 MPH BY DAYBREAK.  
 
***SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM A STRONG COASTAL STORM  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY***  
 
OVERVIEW: WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE ANTICIPATED  
DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM NEAR THE  
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING  
SATURDAY. THIS STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT  
NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL  
BE FROM COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION, DUNE BREACHING, STRONG  
TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR  
THE ATLANTIC COAST.  
 
WHAT HAS CHANGED: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE  
FORECAST OR MESSAGING FOR THE STORM WITH THIS UPDATE. THERE  
STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS  
OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM AND ITS ULTIMATE DEGREE OF  
IMPACTS. THERE ARE STILL 2 POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS, WHICH ARE MOST  
EVIDENT IN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODEL  
RUNS. A STRONGER STORM THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL  
RESULT IN MUCH MORE SEVERE IMPACTS (SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM  
SOLUTION). A SOMEWHAT WEAKER STORM THAT TRACKS FARTHER OFFSHORE,  
(LIKE IN THE LATEST GFS RUNS, AS WELL AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF OTHER  
GLOBAL GUIDANCE) WILL RESULT IN LESS SEVERE, BUT STILL  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GUIDANCE  
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AND VARY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH  
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT ACTUALLY FORMS A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE  
CENTER SOMETIME SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL PREVIOUSLY  
ISSUED WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE  
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, SEVERITY, AND INLAND EXTENT OF  
IMPACTS.  
 
COASTAL STORM FORECAST DETAILS...  
 
THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WHEN OUR AREA LIKELY  
EXPERIENCES THE BRUNT OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE COASTAL STORM. IF  
THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS AND THE COASTAL STORM DOES END UP JUST  
OFFSHORE OR EVEN MAKING LANDFALL OVER DELMARVA, STRONG WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED, SUSTAINED NEAR 30-40 MPH (PERHAPS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE COAST) WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY NEAR 60-70 MPH ALONG  
THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EARLY MONDAY.  
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO  
MONDAY. GUSTS UPWARD OF 30-50 MPH MAY EXTEND INLAND TO ABOUT THE  
I-95 CORRIDOR AND PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA. WHILE THERE IS STILL  
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG STRONG WINDS LAST, THERE IS AT  
LEAST HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT COUNTIES BORDERING THE  
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL EITHER SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT WIND  
GUSTS AT/ABOVE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING. AS A RESULT,  
THE HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NJ  
AND DE, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTIES AS PERIODS OF 40+ MPH  
SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ARE  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WIND  
ADVISORY FOR MORE INLAND COUNTIES, BUT WILL WAIT TO ISSUE  
ANYTHING UNTIL CONFIDENCE ON INLAND EXTENT OF THE WINDS IS  
HIGHER. LONG STORY SHORT, POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE ARE  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST, AND A SLIGHT  
(2/4) RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE FOR THE I-95  
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS OUR  
ENTIRE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA NEAR THE COAST. WHILE THAT  
SOUNDS LIKE A LOT, IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS  
WILL BE FALLING OVER A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN QUITE  
DRY AS WELL. GIVEN THIS, THE THINKING IS THAT FLOODING DUE TO  
HEAVY RAIN ALONE WILL BE LIMITED TO POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN  
AREAS. HOWEVER, THAT MUCH RAINFALL COULD EXACERBATE IMPACTS NEAR  
THE COAST WITH MODERATE AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING  
ONGOING. SIGNIFICANT HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG  
NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTING IN WATER PILING UP ALONG THE COAST.  
 
THE SETUP IS OVERALL VERY COMPLEX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE  
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY, AND  
ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A  
SURFACE HIGH OVER NOVA SCOTIA, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES, AND EVEN DISTANT TROPICAL STORM JERRY. THE EXTENT AND  
SEVERITY OF IMPACTS IN OUR AREA WILL BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE  
EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. STAY TUNED  
TO THE LATEST BRIEFING PACKAGES AND FORECAST UPDATES AS THE  
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT  
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL STORM WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY  
TUESDAY, BUT IT'S REMNANT LOW COULD STILL LINGER IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE COAST YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOMEWHAT  
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT  
TO SEA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, BROAD AND  
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION. ITS COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE  
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER  
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS  
(AROUND 2500 FEET AGL) MAY DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY  
FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS ON EASTWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS  
AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOW CONFIDENCE  
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE.  
 
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE COURSE OF  
THE DAY. SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP, AND THESE  
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES. UTILIZED THE PROB30  
AND ALSO VCSH FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS OF NOW. NORTHEAST TO EAST  
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND  
20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOW  
CONFIDENCE REGARDING MVFR CEILINGS ALSO SHOWER COVERAGE AND  
TIMING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE  
RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR  
RESTRICTIONS AT THE SOUTH JERSEY TERMINALS. NORTHEAST WIND  
GUSTS 25-30 KT AT KACY, 20-25 KT AT THE I-95 TERMINALS AND KMIV,  
AND 15-20 KT AT THE LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH AND GUSTY WINDS.  
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE AT KACY. GUSTS OUT OF  
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 25-35 KT EXPECTED AT THE I-95 TERMINALS AND  
KMIV, WITH 20-30 KT ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE LEHIGH VALLEY.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND LOW  
CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-25 KT OUT OF THE  
NORTH/NORTHEAST.  
 
TUESDAY...CONDITONS IMPROVE BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
WIND GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES.  
 
WEDNESDAY..VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SUB-SCA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN GOES INTO  
EFFECT DURING SATURDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE NEW JERSEY  
WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY.  
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE  
THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER DELAWARE  
BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 35-45 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 50-55 KT EXPECTED  
WITHIN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY.  
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER BAY AS WINDS SHOULD BE  
LIGHTER. DANGEROUS SEAS UPWARD OF 15 TO 20 FEET EXPECTED. PERIODS  
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SEA SPRAY RESTRICTING VISIBILITY  
AT TIMES.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO  
IMPROVE AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. HOWEVER, GALE  
FORCE WINDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND ELEVATED SEAS ABOVE 5  
FEET MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH SATURDAY MORNING'S HIGH  
TIDE, MAINLY FOR ATLANTIC, CAPE MAY, AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN  
NJ AND SUSSEX AND KENT COUNTIES IN DE. AS A RESULT, THE COASTAL  
FLOOD ADVISORY NOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR THE  
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.  
 
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL  
FLOODING IMPACTS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG  
COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE VARIES IN POTENTIAL  
OUTCOMES OF THIS STORM WITH REGARD TO SEVERITY OF COASTAL FLOOD  
IMPACTS LOCALLY, HOWEVER WE REMAIN VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ALONG OUR  
COASTS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST THREAT OF IMPACTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND  
DELAWARE, AND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN  
EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR THE HIGH TIDES SUNDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES DUE TO THE VERY  
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. INTERESTS ALONG THE  
ATLANTIC COAST, DELAWARE BAY, BACK BAYS, AND TIDAL WATERWAYS  
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING THIS  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ021>025.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
FOR NJZ013-014-020-022>027.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR DEZ002>004.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
FOR DEZ003-004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ430.  
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
ANZ431-450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
ANZ451>455.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...OHARA/STAARMANN  
NEAR TERM...GORSE/OHARA  
SHORT TERM...AKL/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN  
LONG TERM...AKL/STAARMANN  
AVIATION...AKL/GORSE  
MARINE...AKL/GORSE/OHARA  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL/COOPER/STAARMANN  
 
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