335  
FXUS61 KPHI 112002  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
402 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK BRINGING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA.  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE STORM WEAKENS  
AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK  
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
***SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM A STRONG COASTAL STORM SUNDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY***  
 
AS OF 11 AM THIS MORNING, THE COASTAL LOW ABOUT 180 MILES OFF THE  
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WAS A CLOSED LOW WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE LESS  
THAN 1004 MB. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE START OF THE COASTAL LOW  
IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LOW AND POTENTIALLY A  
SECOND SURFACE LOW (MORE ON THAT IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH) WILL BRING  
TIDAL/COASTAL FLOOD, WIND, AND RAIN IMPACTS TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE  
NEAR TERM PERIOD.  
 
WHAT HAS CHANGED: MOST NOTABLY, A MAJORITY OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS ARE NOW DEPICTING A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SOLUTION. THESE  
SOLUTIONS SHOW A SECOND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO LONG ISLAND  
AS THE NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THE NET RESULT OF  
THIS FOR OUR AREA COULD BE LOWER TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS, AND WIND  
IMPACTS MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST. AS WE GET CLOSER, HAVE INCREASE  
CONFIDENCE TO CHANGE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING (FOR  
CAPE MAY AND THE REST OF THE COASTAL STRIP) AND WIND ADVISORY (FOR  
INLAND PORTIONS OF SUSSEX CO DELAWARE, INLAND ATLANTIC CO, SE  
BURLINGTON CO, INLAND OCEAN CO, AND INLAND MONMOUTH CO IN NJ.  
 
HAZARDS: FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE TIDAL/COASTAL FLOOD HAZARDS AND  
MARINE NAVIGATION HAZARDS, PLEASE SEE THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING AND  
MARINE SECTIONS BELOW.  
 
WIND...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH THE LATEST  
GUIDANCE THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE  
COAST. CONSEQUENTLY CHANGED THE WATCH TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH WIND  
WARNING (FOR THE COASTAL STRIP, PLUS ALL OF CAPE MAY COUNTY), AND  
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF WHAT WAS IN THE WATCH AREA. THE  
MAIN PERIOD OF IMPACT LOOKS TO BE FROM 15Z/11AM EDT TOMORROW THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
RAIN...DIDN'T MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE RAIN AMOUNTS  
WITH THIS FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE  
MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE, BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DOUBLE  
BARRELED LOW SOLUTIONS, THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF RAIN AMOUNT  
GUIDANCE FOR AN EVENT THAT WILL ESSENTIALLY HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT  
48 HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 0.75 TO 2 INCHES FOR INLAND  
LOCATIONS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS. ALL THAT BEING SAID,  
WITH HOW LONG OF A DURATION THE RAIN IS FALLING, THE  
FRESHWATER/RAINFALL FLOODING THREAT IS LIMITED. HOWEVER, MINOR  
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE, AND THERE REMAINS A  
CONCERN THAT THE RAIN WILL EXACERBATE TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS.  
 
TIMING: WE'VE SEEN THE FIRST FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALREADY  
TODAY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD WON'T START TO MOVE INTO OUR  
REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING FROM  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS FOR WINDS, THE  
MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE INITIAL  
LOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL DOUBLE BARREL  
SOLUTION AND A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN  
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS.  
 
THROUGH TUESDAY, THE REMAINING LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FURTHER  
AWAY, LEAVING JUST BREEZY CONDITIONS (HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 20-30  
MPH ALONG THE COAST) AS WELL AS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR  
THE COAST. THE LOW WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD AND EXTEND OUT OVER OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST  
FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS THE  
WHOLE REGION. WEDNESDAY COULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD BEFORE CAA  
RAMPS UP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. THE COOLER  
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES  
MAY BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST  
FLOW WEAKENS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
REST OF TODAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND  
LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. BRIEF  
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN  
SHOWERS. WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 KTS, STRONGER AT KACY.  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORE RAIN  
OVERSPREADING THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS  
WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25  
KTS, HIGHER AT KACY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH AND GUSTY WINDS. NORTHEAST  
WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KT POSSIBLE AT KACY. GUSTS OUT OF THE  
NORTHEAST AROUND 25-35 KT EXPECTED AT THE I-95 TERMINALS AND  
KMIV, WITH 20-30 KT ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE LEHIGH VALLEY.  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND LOW  
CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-25 KT OUT OF THE  
NORTH/NORTHEAST.  
 
TUESDAY...CONDITONS IMPROVE BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE  
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 20  
KT AT TIMES.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY..VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT TO THE MARINE HAZARDS. EASTERLY WINDS  
AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT  
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE FURTHER. THE  
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY CONTINUING  
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. STILL EXPECTING  
STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL  
WATERS. FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS.  
 
DANGEROUS SEAS UPWARD OF 15 TO 20 FEET EXPECTED. PERIODS OF MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAIN AND SEA SPRAY RESTRICTING VISIBILITY AT TIMES.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO  
IMPROVE AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. HOWEVER,  
GALE FORCE WINDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND ELEVATED SEAS  
ABOVE 5 FEET MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT TIDE  
CYCLE BEFORE THE LARGER EVENT FOR SUNDAY. THE LATEST NUMBERS FOR THE  
UPCOMING TIDE WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST, SO SAW NO NEED FOR ANY  
MAJOR CHANGES. EITHER LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OR JUST BELOW  
THAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
MEANWHILE, THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF MODERATE TO MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A  
STRONG COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES  
IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF THIS STORM WITH REGARD TO SEVERITY OF  
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS LOCALLY, HOWEVER WE REMAIN VERY CONCERNED  
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM  
ALONG OUR COASTS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST THREAT OF IMPACTS  
ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY  
AND DELAWARE, AND DELAWARE BAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH  
SUCH THAT WE'VE UPGRADED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES DUE TO THE VERY  
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. INTERESTS ALONG THE  
ATLANTIC COAST, DELAWARE BAY, BACK BAYS, AND TIDAL WATERWAYS  
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING THIS  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY  
FOR PAZ070-071-106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ021>025.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
NJZ012>014-020>027.  
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ013-  
020-022-027.  
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
NJZ014-023>026.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY  
FOR NJZ017>019.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
DEZ002>004.  
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DEZ003.  
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
DEZ004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.  
STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
ANZ450>455.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AKL  
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON  
SHORT TERM...AKL  
LONG TERM...AKL  
AVIATION...AKL  
MARINE...AKL/JOHNSON  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...OHARA  
 
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