602  
FXUS61 KPHI 120133  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
933 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK  
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. IMPROVING  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND MOVES  
OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE  
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
***SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM A COASTAL  
STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY***  
 
AS OF 9 PM, A 998 MB LOW IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS  
IS THE START OF THE COASTAL LOW IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION WHICH  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LOW, AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND  
SURFACE LOW (MORE ON THAT IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH), WILL BRING  
COASTAL FLOODING AND WIND IMPACTS TO PARTS OF OUR REGION. EAST-  
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE MARINE AREA AND ALONG  
THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-35  
MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST SO FAR THIS EVENING.  
 
WHAT HAS CHANGED: MOST NOTABLY, A MAJORITY OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS ARE NOW DEPICTING A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SOLUTION. THESE  
SOLUTIONS SHOW A SECOND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO LONG ISLAND  
AS THE NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THE NET RESULT OF  
THIS FOR OUR AREA COULD BE LOWER TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS, AND WIND  
IMPACTS MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST.  
 
HAZARDS: FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE COASTAL FLOOD HAZARDS AND  
MARINE NAVIGATION HAZARDS, PLEASE SEE THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING AND  
MARINE SECTIONS BELOW.  
 
WIND...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH THE LATEST  
GUIDANCE THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE  
COAST. CONSEQUENTLY CHANGED THE WATCH TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH WIND  
WARNING (FOR THE COASTAL STRIP, PLUS ALL OF CAPE MAY COUNTY), AND A  
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF WHAT WAS IN THE WATCH AREA. THE  
MAIN PERIOD OF IMPACT LOOKS TO BE FROM 15Z/11AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
RAIN...DIDN'T MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE RAIN AMOUNTS  
WITH THIS FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE  
MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE, BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DOUBLE  
BARRELED LOW SOLUTIONS, THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF RAIN AMOUNT  
GUIDANCE FOR AN EVENT THAT WILL ESSENTIALLY HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT  
48 HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 0.75 TO 2 INCHES FOR INLAND  
LOCATIONS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS. ALL THAT BEING SAID,  
WITH HOW LONG OF A DURATION THE RAIN IS FALLING, THE  
FRESHWATER/RAINFALL FLOODING THREAT IS LIMITED. HOWEVER, MINOR  
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE, AND THERE REMAINS A  
CONCERN THAT THE RAIN WILL EXACERBATE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS.  
 
TIMING: SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY AND  
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD WON'T START TO MOVE INTO  
OUR REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF  
THE RAIN FALLING FROM LATER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY ON  
MONDAY. AS FOR WINDS, THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS FROM LATE SUNDAY  
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE INITIAL  
LOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL DOUBLE BARREL  
SOLUTION AND A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN  
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS.  
 
THROUGH TUESDAY, THE REMAINING LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FURTHER  
AWAY, LEAVING JUST BREEZY CONDITIONS (HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 20-30  
MPH ALONG THE COAST) AS WELL AS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR  
THE COAST. THE LOW WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD AND EXTEND OUT OVER OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST  
FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS THE  
WHOLE REGION. WEDNESDAY COULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD BEFORE CAA  
RAMPS UP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. THE COOLER  
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES  
MAY BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST  
FLOW WEAKENS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS, HOWEVER TIMES OF VFR CEILINGS AT SOME  
TERMINALS ESPECIALLY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING  
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR A TIME.  
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH  
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS LATE (HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST, SLOWER  
INCREASE AT KABE AND KRDG). LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING CEILING  
HEIGHT AND VISIBILITY TIMING/DETAILS.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN  
MOVING THROUGH, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKING TO OCCUR  
MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS  
WITH GUSTS 25-40 KNOTS, HIGHEST AT KACY AND KMIV. LOW CONFIDENCE  
ON TIMING DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND LOW  
CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-25 KT OUT OF THE  
NORTH/NORTHEAST.  
 
TUESDAY...CONDITONS IMPROVE BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE  
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 20  
KT AT TIMES.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY..VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT TO THE MARINE HAZARDS. EAST TO  
NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES ARE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND THIS  
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. STILL EXPECTING STORM FORCE  
WINDS ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE NJ/DE ATLANTIC COASTAL  
WATERS. FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS.  
 
DANGEROUS SEAS UP TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED. PERIODS OF RAIN AND  
SEA SPRAY RESTRICTING VISIBILITY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY  
INTO MONDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO  
IMPROVE AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. HOWEVER,  
GALE FORCE WINDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND ELEVATED SEAS  
ABOVE 5 FEET MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT TIDE  
CYCLE BEFORE THE LARGER EVENT FOR SUNDAY. THE LATEST NUMBERS FOR THE  
UPCOMING TIDE WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST, SO SAW NO NEED FOR ANY  
MAJOR CHANGES. EITHER LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OR JUST BELOW  
THAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
MEANWHILE, THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF MODERATE TO MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A  
COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES IN  
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF THIS STORM WITH REGARD TO SEVERITY OF  
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS LOCALLY, HOWEVER WE REMAIN VERY CONCERNED  
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM  
ALONG OUR COASTS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST THREAT OF IMPACTS  
ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY  
AND DELAWARE, AND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS  
IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE QUITE POSSIBLE  
ALONG THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES DUE  
TO THE VERY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. INTERESTS  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, DELAWARE BAY, BACK BAYS, AND TIDAL  
WATERWAYS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING  
THIS SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY  
FOR PAZ070-071-106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ021>025.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
NJZ012>014-020>027.  
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ013-  
020-022-027.  
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
NJZ014-023>026.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY  
FOR NJZ017>019.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
DEZ002>004.  
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DEZ003.  
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
DEZ004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.  
STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AKL  
NEAR TERM...GORSE/JOHNSON  
SHORT TERM...AKL  
LONG TERM...AKL  
AVIATION...AKL/GORSE  
MARINE...AKL/JOHNSON  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...OHARA  
 
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