202  
FXUS61 KPHI 120617  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
217 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING  
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT TO SEA.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION DURING  
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
***SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM A COASTAL  
STORM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY***  
 
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS POSITIONED  
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A SECONDARY LOW WAS STARTING TO  
DEVELOP CLOSER TO CAPE HATTERAS, AND THIS LOW WILL BE THE MAIN  
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THRU MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS  
IT HEADS NORTHWARD, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST OFF THE JERSEY  
SHORE BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY MONDAY NIGHT AND  
BEYOND. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON ITS NORTHWESTERN  
FLANK, A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET WILL INTENSIFY, WITH WINDS  
LIKELY GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 50 MPH  
ACROSS INTERIOR COASTAL NJ AND DE. FURTHER INLAND, THE JET  
DWINDLES MARKEDLY, WITH ONLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN PHILLY AND  
EVEN LOWER FURTHER INLAND. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO SPREAD NORTH  
ALONG THE COAST STARTING IN DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
CONTINUING NORTH TO NEAR SANDY HOOK BY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THEY  
BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. THUS, INHERITED HIGH WIND  
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AS-IS.  
 
RAIN-WISE, HOWEVER, THE TREND CONTINUES IN THE DRIER DIRECTION  
FOR MOST. THIS LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY COMPACT, AND DRIER AIR  
WILL BE TRYING TO DRAIN SOUTHWESTWARD ON ITS NORTHWEST FLANK, SO  
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NOW LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A  
STRUGGLE. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET SOME RAIN, BUT IT NOW LOOKS  
MORE LIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION WILL RECEIVE LESS  
THAN AN INCH. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL  
COUNTIES, WHERE 1-3 INCHES STILL LOOKS PROBABLE, ENHANCED BY THE  
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET EJECTING ONTO THE COAST. FOR COASTAL AREAS,  
STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BUT INLAND,  
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN MEANS THAT  
MONDAY MAY BE THE WETTEST DAY OVERALL.  
 
TEMPERATURE-WISE, MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AGAIN TODAY,  
BUT AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM, TEMPS WILL FALL INTO  
THE 50S TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RETURN  
TO THE 60S ON MONDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND LINGERING RAIN.  
 
SEE THE MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD SECTIONS BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS  
ON THOSE HAZARDS FROM THIS SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE INITIAL  
LOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL DOUBLE BARREL  
SOLUTION AND A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN  
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS.  
 
THROUGH TUESDAY, THE REMAINING LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FURTHER  
AWAY, LEAVING JUST BREEZY CONDITIONS (HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 20-30  
MPH ALONG THE COAST) AS WELL AS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR  
THE COAST. THE LOW WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD AND EXTEND OUT OVER OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST  
FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY DRY ACROSS THE  
WHOLE REGION. WEDNESDAY COULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD BEFORE CAA  
RAMPS UP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. THE COOLER  
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES  
MAY BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST  
FLOW WEAKENS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THRU 12Z...MVFR CEILINGS, HOWEVER TIMES OF VFR CEILINGS AT SOME  
TERMINALS. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS  
TO 20-25 KNOTS LATE (HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST, SLOWER INCREASE  
AT KABE AND KRDG). LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING CEILING HEIGHT AND  
VISIBILITY TIMING/DETAILS.  
 
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN  
MOVING THROUGH, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKING TO OCCUR  
MOSTLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH  
GUSTS 25-40 KNOTS, HIGHEST AT KACY AND KMIV. LOW CONFIDENCE ON  
TIMING DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND LOW  
CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-25 KT OUT OF THE  
NORTH/NORTHEAST.  
 
TUESDAY...CONDITONS IMPROVE BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE  
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 20  
KT AT TIMES.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY..VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT TO THE MARINE HAZARDS. EAST TO  
NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES ARE INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING AND  
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED DURING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING STORM FORCE  
WINDS ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE NJ/DE ATLANTIC COASTAL  
WATERS. FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS.  
 
DANGEROUS SEAS UP TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED. PERIODS OF RAIN AND  
SEA SPRAY RESTRICTING VISIBILITY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO  
IMPROVE AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. HOWEVER,  
GALE FORCE WINDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND ELEVATED SEAS  
ABOVE 5 FEET MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT  
TIDE CYCLE BEFORE THE LARGER EVENT FOR SUNDAY. THE LATEST  
NUMBERS FOR THE UPCOMING TIDE WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST, SO  
SAW NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES. EITHER LOW-END MINOR TIDAL  
FLOODING OR JUST BELOW THAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
MEANWHILE, THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF MODERATE TO MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A  
COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES IN  
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF THIS STORM WITH REGARD TO SEVERITY OF  
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS LOCALLY, HOWEVER WE REMAIN VERY CONCERNED  
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM  
ALONG OUR COASTS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST THREAT OF IMPACTS  
ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY  
AND DELAWARE, AND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS  
IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE QUITE POSSIBLE  
ALONG THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES DUE  
TO THE VERY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. INTERESTS  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, DELAWARE BAY, BACK BAYS, AND TIDAL  
WATERWAYS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING  
THIS SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT  
MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT  
MONDAY FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR  
NJZ021>025.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT  
MONDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.  
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
NJZ013-020-022-027.  
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY  
FOR NJZ014-023>026.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT  
MONDAY FOR NJZ017>019.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT  
MONDAY FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR  
DEZ002>004.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT  
MONDAY FOR DEZ002>004.  
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
DEZ003.  
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY  
FOR DEZ004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.  
STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM  
NEAR TERM...RCM  
SHORT TERM...AKL  
LONG TERM...AKL  
AVIATION...AKL/RCM  
MARINE...AKL/RCM  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI  
 
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