541  
FXUS61 KPHI 130522  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
122 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH  
MONDAY, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE STORM WEAKENS  
AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK  
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/  
 
AS OF 900 PM, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RAIN SHIELD IN NEW  
JERSEY IS SLOWLY EXPANDING WESTWARD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING  
CONTINUES WESTWARD AS EVIDENT BY SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS  
(DRIZZLE) AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED CLOUD BASES. A ROBUST  
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD  
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY THE MARINE ZONES.  
THE KDIX RADAR VELOCITY DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF 45-55 KNOTS OF  
WIND AROUND 2500 FEET AGL JUST OFFSHORE OF MONMOUTH AND OCEAN  
COUNTIES. THIS WILL ENHANCE SOME LIFT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING, AND AS A RESULT AREAS OF RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND  
FARTHER WESTWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE FELT ACROSS OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES DUE TO  
STRONG/DAMAGING ONSHORE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE COASTAL  
FLOODING. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 45-59  
MPH SO FAR.  
 
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WIND HEADLINES, WITH A  
HIGH WIND WARNING STILL IN PLACE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES OF  
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AS WELL AS ALL OF CAPE MAY COUNTY  
THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR  
MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND ATLANTIC COUNTY IN NJ OUTSIDE OF THE  
COASTAL STRIP THROUGH THE SAME TIME, WITH THE SAME BEING TRUE  
FOR MAINLAND SUSSEX COUNTY, DE.  
 
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THE FORECAST CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD  
AS A MORE STRUNG OUT, DOUBLE BARREL LOW HAS DEVELOPED. MAIN  
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE TIDAL FLOODING AND WIND, WITH  
THE REMAINING A LIMITED TERTIARY THREAT. SO FAR, 0.50-1.00  
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ALONG THE COAST. WHEN WE'RE ALL SAID  
AND DONE, THE COAST WILL END UP WITH ABOUT 2 INCHES, WITH AROUND  
A HALF INCH TO 1.0 INCH ELSEWHERE.  
 
IN TERMS OF HOW THE TIMING LOOKS, AREAS OF RAIN WILL SHIFT  
WESTWARD TROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WE START TO DRY OUT LATER  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO A QUIETER MID-WEEK PERIOD.  
 
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE  
DYING DOWN JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. MONDAY STILL WILL BE BREEZY  
THOUGH BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY. GUSTS INLAND COULD GET NEAR 30  
MPH AT TIMES, WITH 40 MPH GUSTS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
IT WILL BE DAMP AND DREARY TO START THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES  
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. THERE WON'T BE MUCH OF A DROP  
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES, AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID  
50S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE  
SLOW MOVING COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LINGERING  
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NJ/DE EARLY WILL DECREASE BY  
AFTERNOON. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR THE  
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL TUE/WED WITH MOSTLY  
MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS AND LOWS FAVORING THE LOW/MID 50S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
NOT MUCH HAPPENING FOR THE LONG TERM. LIKE LAST WEEK, A LARGE  
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AND  
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING A  
SYSTEM FOLLOWING FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT SINCE IT'S AT THE  
EDGE OF OUR FORECAST TIME RANGE WE'LL JUST MENTION THE SLIGHT  
CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKE  
LAST WEEK TOO. READINGS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WED NIGHT/THU THEN  
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE  
DELAWARE VALLEY THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH LOWS  
IN THE UPPER 40S. FURTHER NORTH, HIGHS ARE NORMAL CLOSE TO 60  
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS TO EVENTUALLY IFR. SOME ROUNDS  
OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS  
(TO OCCASIONALLY 40 KNOTS MAINLY AT KACY). LOW CONFIDENCE.  
 
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. AREAS OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN  
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20  
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, WHICH MAY DIMINISH SOME IN THE  
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. LOW CONFIDENCE.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR EVEN POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS.  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AT THE  
TERMINALS. LINGERING SHOWERS STILL REMAIN FOR KACY. A NE WIND  
PERSISTS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. LOW  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS EARLY THEN VFR  
RETURNING. VFR N/W AND DELAWARE VALLEY AREAS THRU THE DAY.  
 
TUE NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED. PATCHY MORNING FOG  
POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS  
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR  
HIGHER ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS OF 11 TO 16 FEET ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE A  
BIT LESS ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AROUND 30-40 KT OUT OF THE  
NORTHEAST.  
 
ONCE THE STORM WARNING EXPIRES, A GALE WARNING LIKELY WILL BE  
NEEDED AS 34+ KT WIND GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
SEAS MONDAY NIGHT OF 8 TO 12 FEET EXPECTED.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SCA/LOW-END GALES CONTINUE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY MANY AREAS THEN  
LOWERING WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND CONTINUING  
SAT. SHOWERS TUESDAY THEN FAIR FOR WED THRU SAT.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
9:30 PM UPDATE: THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECASTS WERE UPDATED FOR ALL  
GAUGES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE  
NEXT TWO UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE  
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TREND IN GAUGE OBSERVATIONS.  
THE DELAWARE BAY (INCLUDING LEWES) AND ATLANTIC/CAPE MAY COUNTY  
GAUGES WERE LOWERED BY A COUPLE TENTHS OF A FOOT, AND THE  
RARITAN BAY AND MONMOUTH COUNTY GAUGES WERE INCREASED BY A  
COUPLE TENTHS OF A FOOT. OUR FORECAST FOR PERTH AMBOY IS NOW  
JUST 0.1 OF A FOOT SHY OF MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. IT'S STILL POSSIBLE  
THAT A GAUGE OR TWO ALONG RARITAN BAY REACHES MAJOR FLOOD STAGE,  
BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE SURFACE LOW EVOLVES INTO MONDAY.  
A STRONGER, MORE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND WOULD RESULT IN MORE  
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SUGGESTS.  
 
MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NJ AND DE, AND WILL CONTINUE AROUND  
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COASTAL STORM  
IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES IN THE SOLUTIONS  
REGARDING THE SEVERITY OF COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS LOCALLY, AS THIS  
WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF  
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, WE REMAIN VERY CONCERNED  
ABOUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ALONG OUR COASTS, AND  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND  
GUIDANCE CLOSELY.  
 
THE GREATEST THREAT OF IMPACTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, AND  
DELAWARE BAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE AND WAFFLE BETWEEN  
MODERATE OR MAJOR, THE ACTUAL FLOOD STAGE AND TIDE LEVEL WILL  
NOT CHANGE MUCH. REGARDLESS OF WHAT LEVEL THE TIDES HIT, AN  
IMPACTFUL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE  
CYCLES. RESIDENTS SHOULD HEED ADVICE AND ANY EVACUATION ORDERS  
FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THROUGHOUT THIS  
EVENT. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING.  
 
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE TIDAL  
DELAWARE RIVER WITH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, WHERE  
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.  
 
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES DUE TO THE VERY  
HIGH/DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-  
071-106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ012>014-020>027.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ013-020-  
022-027.  
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-  
023>026.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ017>019.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
DEZ002>004.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ003.  
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.  
STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...AKL  
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HOEFLICH  
SHORT TERM...OHARA  
LONG TERM...OHARA  
AVIATION...GORSE/GUZZO/OHARA  
MARINE...HOEFLICH  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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