153  
FXUS61 KPHI 130647  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
247 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH  
TODAY, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE STORM WEAKENS  
AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK  
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 2:45 AM, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MORE EXPANSIVE RAIN  
SHIELD HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE MORE TOWARDS I-95. THERE CONTINUES  
TO BE LOW- LEVEL MOISTENING FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95 WITH SOME  
SHOWERS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS SHOWING DRIZZLE FOR THESE AREAS.  
A ROBUST EASTERLY LOW- LEVEL JET AT 850 MB HAS CONTINUED TO LIFT  
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY THE  
MARINE ZONES. THE KDIX RADAR VELOCITY DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF  
55-60 KNOTS OF WIND AROUND 3500 FEET AGL JUST OFFSHORE OF  
MONMOUTH COUNTY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS  
MORNING, AND AS A RESULT AREAS OF RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED TO  
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FARTHER WEST THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FELT ACROSS OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES DUE TO  
STRONG/DAMAGING ONSHORE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE COASTAL  
FLOODING. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 50-60  
MPH WITH A FEW OVER 60 MPH SO FAR.  
 
OUR WIND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING STILL IN  
PLACE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AS  
WELL AS ALL OF CAPE MAY COUNTY THROUGH 6 AM TODAY. WIND ADVISORY  
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND ATLANTIC COUNTY IN NJ  
OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL STRIP THROUGH THE SAME TIME, WITH THE SAME  
BEING TRUE FOR MAINLAND SUSSEX COUNTY, DE.  
 
FOR THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN  
AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.50 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL  
AREAS, TOTALS DROP OFF QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO I-95 AND WEST  
OF I-95. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY 0.25-0.50 OUTSIDE OF  
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS FALLING THROUGH TODAY. OUR COASTAL AREAS  
FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD TO MONMOUTH COUNTY COULD PICK UP AN  
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE  
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN THIS AREA CURRENTLY. BY TONIGHT, WE  
TREND DRIER WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE THE COASTAL  
FLOODING (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW) AND WIND. THE WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE THROUGH DAYBREAK. DURING  
THE DAY TODAY, IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS INLAND NEAR 30 MPH  
AT TIMES AND NEAR 40 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. THERE  
WON'T BE MUCH OF A DROP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE  
50S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE  
SLOW MOVING COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LINGERING  
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NJ/DE EARLY WILL DECREASE BY  
AFTERNOON. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR THE  
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL TUE/WED WITH MOSTLY  
MID/UPPER 60S MOST SPOTS AND LOWS FAVORING THE LOW/MID 50S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
NOT MUCH HAPPENING FOR THE LONG TERM. LIKE LAST WEEK, A LARGE  
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AND  
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING A  
SYSTEM FOLLOWING FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT SINCE IT'S AT THE  
EDGE OF OUR FORECAST TIME RANGE WE'LL JUST MENTION THE SLIGHT  
CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKE  
LAST WEEK TOO. READINGS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WED NIGHT/THU THEN  
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE  
DELAWARE VALLEY THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH LOWS  
IN THE UPPER 40S. FURTHER NORTH, HIGHS ARE NORMAL CLOSE TO 60  
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS TO EVENTUALLY IFR. SOME ROUNDS  
OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS  
(TO OCCASIONALLY 40 KNOTS MAINLY AT KACY). LOW CONFIDENCE.  
 
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. AREAS OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN  
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20  
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, WHICH MAY DIMINISH SOME IN THE  
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. LOW CONFIDENCE.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR EVEN POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS.  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AT THE  
TERMINALS. LINGERING SHOWERS STILL REMAIN FOR KACY. A NE WIND  
PERSISTS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. LOW  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS EARLY THEN VFR  
RETURNING. VFR N/W AND DELAWARE VALLEY AREAS THRU THE DAY.  
 
TUE NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED. PATCHY MORNING FOG  
POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND  
LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR HIGHER ARE  
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY  
DECREASE CLOSER TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS OF 10 TO 15  
FEET REMAIN TODAY. WINDS ARE LOWER ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY,  
AROUND 30-35 KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHICH LOOK TO CONTINUE TO  
DECREASE MORE IN THE WAY OF SCA CRITERIA LATER TODAY.  
 
A TRANSITION FROM A STORM WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL  
WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY TO A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED AS 34+ KT WIND GUSTS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A  
TRANSITION TO AN SCA FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL ALSO BE  
NEEDED AS WINDS NEAR 30 KT CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SEAS OVERNIGHT  
OF 10 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SCA/LOW-END GALES CONTINUE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY MANY AREAS THEN  
LOWERING WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND CONTINUING  
SAT. SHOWERS TUESDAY THEN FAIR FOR WED THRU SAT.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
9:30 PM UPDATE: THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECASTS WERE UPDATED FOR ALL  
GAUGES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE  
NEXT TWO UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE  
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TREND IN GAUGE OBSERVATIONS.  
THE DELAWARE BAY (INCLUDING LEWES) AND ATLANTIC/CAPE MAY COUNTY  
GAUGES WERE LOWERED BY A COUPLE TENTHS OF A FOOT, AND THE  
RARITAN BAY AND MONMOUTH COUNTY GAUGES WERE INCREASED BY A  
COUPLE TENTHS OF A FOOT. OUR FORECAST FOR PERTH AMBOY IS NOW  
JUST 0.1 OF A FOOT SHY OF MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. IT'S STILL POSSIBLE  
THAT A GAUGE OR TWO ALONG RARITAN BAY REACHES MAJOR FLOOD STAGE,  
BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE SURFACE LOW EVOLVES INTO MONDAY.  
A STRONGER, MORE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND WOULD RESULT IN MORE  
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SUGGESTS.  
 
MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NJ AND DE, AND WILL CONTINUE AROUND  
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COASTAL STORM  
IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES IN THE SOLUTIONS  
REGARDING THE SEVERITY OF COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS LOCALLY, AS THIS  
WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF  
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, WE REMAIN VERY CONCERNED  
ABOUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ALONG OUR COASTS, AND  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND  
GUIDANCE CLOSELY.  
 
THE GREATEST THREAT OF IMPACTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, AND  
DELAWARE BAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE AND WAFFLE BETWEEN  
MODERATE OR MAJOR, THE ACTUAL FLOOD STAGE AND TIDE LEVEL WILL  
NOT CHANGE MUCH. REGARDLESS OF WHAT LEVEL THE TIDES HIT, AN  
IMPACTFUL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE  
CYCLES. RESIDENTS SHOULD HEED ADVICE AND ANY EVACUATION ORDERS  
FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THROUGHOUT THIS  
EVENT. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING.  
 
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE TIDAL  
DELAWARE RIVER WITH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, WHERE  
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.  
 
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES DUE TO THE VERY  
HIGH/DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-  
071-106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ012>014-020>027.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ013-020-  
022-027.  
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-  
023>026.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ017>019.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
DEZ002>004.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ003.  
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.  
STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...AKL  
NEAR TERM...GUZZO  
SHORT TERM...OHARA  
LONG TERM...OHARA  
AVIATION...GUZZO/OHARA  
MARINE...GUZZO/HOEFLICH  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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