381  
FXUS61 KPHI 131103  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
703 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH  
TODAY, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE STORM WEAKENS  
AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK  
INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THE MORE EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD  
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING FOR  
AREAS WEST OF I-95 WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FOR THESE AREAS. A  
ROBUST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB HAS CONTINUED TO LIFT  
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY THE MARINE  
ZONES. THE KDIX RADAR VELOCITY DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF 55-60  
KNOTS OF WIND AROUND 3500 FEET AGL JUST OFFSHORE OF MONMOUTH  
COUNTY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND AS  
A RESULT AREAS OF RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND  
FARTHER WEST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE FELT ACROSS OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES DUE TO  
ONSHORE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING. WIND  
GUSTS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 50-60 MPH WITH A FEW  
OVER 60 MPH SO FAR.  
 
OUR WIND HEADLINES HAVE CHANGED WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE. A  
HIGH WIND WARNING IS STILL IN PLACE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE  
OF MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES THROUGH 8 AM TODAY. FOR THE REST  
OF THE COASTLINE, THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO BE  
CANCELLED. THERE IS STILL A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN,  
AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY THROUGH THE SAME TIME. THE  
REST OF THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO BE CANCELLED.  
 
FOR THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE HAVE ALREADY  
SEEN AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS  
ALONG THE COAST. OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL AREAS, TOTALS DROP OFF  
QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO I-95 AND WEST OF I-95. ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25-0.50 OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL  
AREAS WITH THIS FALLING MAINLY THROUGH TODAY. OUR COASTAL AREAS  
FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD TO MONMOUTH COUNTY COULD PICK UP  
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ENHANCEMENT FROM  
THE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN THIS AREA CURRENTLY. BY  
TONIGHT, WE TREND DRIER WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COASTAL  
FLOODING (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). THE WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH IS  
WHY SOME OF THE HEADLINES WERE BRIEFLY EXTENDED. DURING THE DAY  
TODAY, IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS INLAND NEAR 30 MPH AT  
TIMES AND NEAR 40 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.  
THERE WON'T BE MUCH OF A DROP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY  
IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE OCEAN AND WEAKEN  
TUESDAY, WITH CHANCE OF RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING AND POTENTIALLY  
SOME BREAKS OF SUN RETURNING, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER MUCH  
OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS REBOUND WELL INTO  
THE 60S FOR MOST.  
 
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CONTINUE DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE  
LOW CONTINUES HEADING OUT TO SEA. WIND SHOULD STAY ELEVATED SO  
NOT MUCH RISK OF FOG. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
WEDNESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY EVEN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD ALSO BE ELEVATED, WELL INTO  
THE 60S WITH SOME SPOTS CRACKING 70.  
 
COLD ADVECTION TAKES STRONG HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO  
MID 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH  
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS  
OF THE SEASON THUS FAR, WITH MANY LOCALES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60  
DURING THURSDAY, AND ONLY A LITTLE MILDER ON FRIDAY. WITH MUCH  
OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES NOW OUT OF THE GROWING SEASON DUE TO LAST  
WEEK'S FREEZE, THE QUESTION OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IS MURKY,  
AS AREAS WHICH HAVEN'T FROZEN YET MAY STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A  
BREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP THEM FROM FREEZING, DESPITE THE  
CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S  
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, EXCEPT 40S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS, WHILE  
STAYING A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
WARM FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES  
EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK CLOSER TO  
70 DURING THE DAY DESPITE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH  
CLOUD COVER. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND SUNDAY, WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS.  
ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO HOLD MANY AREAS AT 50 OR  
HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT, AND PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 70S FOR  
MOST ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS TREND LOWER TO IFR BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF  
RAIN WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. NORTH-  
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, WHICH MAY  
DIMINISH SOME IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF  
KPHL. LOW CONFIDENCE.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR EVEN POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS.  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AT THE  
TERMINALS. LINGERING SHOWERS STILL REMAIN FOR KACY. A NNE WIND  
PERSISTS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. LOW  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS VFR TUESDAY, THEN REMAINING VFR REST  
OF THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO ATLANTIC  
COASTAL WATER ZONES UNTIL NOON TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE STORM  
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN PLACE  
THROUGH 6PM TUESDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE GALE FORCE  
WINDS LATER TODAY BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY. OUR GALE WARNING FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY HAS  
REMAINED IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TODAY. SEAS ARE 12-16 FEET TODAY  
AND 10 TO 12 FEET OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK... GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS  
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA AND AWAY FROM THE REGION,  
WITH SCA ON DELAWARE BAY. SHOULD DROP BACK MOSTLY TO SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND  
POTENTIALLY SUB-SCA ON THE BAY, BUT THEN PROBABLY LEVEL OFF AT  
THIS CONDITION (AT LEAST SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS) THROUGH  
THURSDAY. SHOULD MOSTLY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN  
WATERS FRIDAY WIND- WISE, BUT SEAS MAY YET REMAIN ELEVATED TO  
SCA LEVELS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
5 AM UPDATE: THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECASTS WERE UPDATED FOR ALL  
GAUGES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE  
NEXT AND FINAL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SOME  
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TREND  
IN GAUGE OBSERVATIONS. PERHAPS MOST NOTABLY WAS TO LOWER CAPE  
MAY, LEWES, AND BOWERS BEACH TO HIGH END MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.  
THIS WAS DONE SINCE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH TO NORTH-  
NORTHWESTERLY NEAR LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE DELAWARE BAY  
MOUTH. THIS WILL BE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF MAJOR FLOOD IMPACTS BEING  
REACHED IN THIS AREA, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE GAUGES  
FLIRTING WITH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE NEAR HIGH TIDE.  
 
REEDY POINT WAS LOWERED TO JUST TOUCH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE  
MUCH MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL RESULT IN A LOWER  
LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BEING REACHED THERE.  
 
THE BACK BAYS OF OCEAN, ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES ARE MOST  
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MAJOR FLOOD IMPACTS, AS THE N-NNW WINDS  
WILL NOT ALLOW SURGE TO DRAIN QUICKLY OUT OF THE BAYS AS IS THE  
CASE WITH DELAWARE BAY.  
 
OUR FORECAST FOR PERTH AMBOY REMAINS JUST 0.1 OF A FOOT SHY OF  
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. IT'S STILL POSSIBLE THAT A GAUGE OR TWO ALONG  
RARITAN BAY REACHES MAJOR FLOOD STAGE, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON  
HOW THE SURFACE LOW EVOLVES INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER, MORE  
PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND WOULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT  
IMPACTS THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SUGGESTS.  
 
MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY  
OCCURRED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NJ AND DE, AND WILL  
CONTINUE AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH TODAY AS A  
COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. GUIDANCE STILL VARIES IN THE  
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SEVERITY OF COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS  
LOCALLY, AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK  
AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, WE REMAIN  
VERY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ALONG  
OUR COASTS, AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN  
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE CLOSELY.  
 
THE GREATEST THREAT OF IMPACTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, AND  
DELAWARE BAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE AND WAFFLE BETWEEN  
MODERATE OR MAJOR, THE ACTUAL FLOOD STAGE AND TIDE LEVEL WILL  
NOT CHANGE MUCH. REGARDLESS OF WHAT LEVEL THE TIDES HIT, AN  
IMPACTFUL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE  
CYCLES. RESIDENTS SHOULD HEED ADVICE AND ANY EVACUATION ORDERS  
FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THROUGHOUT THIS  
EVENT. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS  
EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST AND DELAWARE BAY.  
 
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE TIDAL  
DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE, WHERE A COASTAL  
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.  
 
SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES DUE TO THE VERY  
HIGH/DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY.  
 
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR OUR EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES  
ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-  
071-106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ012>014-020>027.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ013-020-027.  
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-026.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ017>019.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
DEZ002>004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-452>455.  
STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450-451.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM  
NEAR TERM...GUZZO  
SHORT TERM...RCM  
LONG TERM...RCM  
AVIATION...GUZZO/RCM  
MARINE...GUZZO/RCM  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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