426  
FXUS61 KPHI 131730  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
130 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH  
TODAY, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE STORM WEAKENS  
AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK  
INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 8:00 AM...HAVE ALLOWED BOTH THE REMAINING HIGH WIND  
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES FOR MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES TO  
EXPIRE. WINDS HAVE PEAKED OVERNIGHT AND ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING  
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW:  
THE MORE EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD  
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING FOR  
AREAS WEST OF I-95 WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FOR THESE AREAS. A  
ROBUST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB HAS CONTINUED TO LIFT  
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY THE MARINE  
ZONES. THE KDIX RADAR VELOCITY DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF 55-60  
KNOTS OF WIND AROUND 3500 FEET AGL JUST OFFSHORE OF MONMOUTH  
COUNTY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND AS  
A RESULT AREAS OF RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND  
FARTHER WEST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE FELT ACROSS OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES DUE TO  
ONSHORE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT/SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING. WIND  
GUSTS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 50-60 MPH WITH A FEW  
OVER 60 MPH SO FAR.  
 
FOR THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE HAVE ALREADY  
SEEN AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.50 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS  
ALONG THE COAST. OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL AREAS, TOTALS DROP OFF  
QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO I-95 AND WEST OF I-95. ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25-0.50 OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL  
AREAS WITH THIS FALLING MAINLY THROUGH TODAY. OUR COASTAL AREAS  
FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD TO MONMOUTH COUNTY COULD PICK UP  
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ENHANCEMENT FROM  
THE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN THIS AREA CURRENTLY. BY  
TONIGHT, WE TREND DRIER WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE COASTAL  
FLOODING (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). THE WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH IS  
WHY SOME OF THE HEADLINES WERE BRIEFLY EXTENDED. DURING THE DAY  
TODAY, IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS INLAND NEAR 30 MPH AT  
TIMES AND NEAR 40 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.  
THERE WON'T BE MUCH OF A DROP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY  
IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE OCEAN AND WEAKEN  
TUESDAY, WITH CHANCE OF RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING AND POTENTIALLY  
SOME BREAKS OF SUN RETURNING, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER MUCH  
OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS REBOUND WELL INTO  
THE 60S FOR MOST.  
 
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CONTINUE DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE  
LOW CONTINUES HEADING OUT TO SEA. WIND SHOULD STAY ELEVATED SO  
NOT MUCH RISK OF FOG. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
WEDNESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY EVEN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD ALSO BE ELEVATED, WELL INTO  
THE 60S WITH SOME SPOTS CRACKING 70.  
 
COLD ADVECTION TAKES STRONG HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO  
MID 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH  
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS  
OF THE SEASON THUS FAR, WITH MANY LOCALES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60  
DURING THURSDAY, AND ONLY A LITTLE MILDER ON FRIDAY. WITH MUCH  
OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES NOW OUT OF THE GROWING SEASON DUE TO LAST  
WEEK'S FREEZE, THE QUESTION OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IS MURKY,  
AS AREAS WHICH HAVEN'T FROZEN YET MAY STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A  
BREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP THEM FROM FREEZING, DESPITE THE  
CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S  
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, EXCEPT 40S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS, WHILE  
STAYING A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
WARM FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES  
EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK CLOSER TO  
70 DURING THE DAY DESPITE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH  
CLOUD COVER. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND SUNDAY, WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS.  
ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO HOLD MANY AREAS AT 50 OR  
HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT, AND PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 70S FOR  
MOST ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
REST OF TODAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE  
REGION. LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS ARE TO PREVAIL FOR KMIV/KACY, WITH  
MVFR PREVAILING AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO  
GROUPS FOR I-95 TERMINALS FOR IFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL  
HOURS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, INTERMITTENT SHOWERS, MIST AND  
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE-LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL.  
 
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS (PRIMARILY CEILINGS) TO  
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONS TO  
SHOWERS, MIST AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHEAST  
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY NEAR KACY. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL.  
 
TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR CEILINGS BY  
MID-LATE MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z  
FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR REST OF THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 8:00 AM, HAVE DOWNGRADED THE REMAINING STORM WARNINGS TO  
GALE WARNINGS ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS WIND  
OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE,  
OTHER GALE WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.  
 
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN  
15-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE A BIT, BUT STILL REMAIN UPWARDS OF  
35-40 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 12-16 FEET TODAY AND 10 TO 12 FEET  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS  
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA AND AWAY FROM THE REGION,  
WITH SCA ON DELAWARE BAY. SHOULD DROP BACK MOSTLY TO SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND  
POTENTIALLY SUB-SCA ON THE BAY, BUT THEN PROBABLY LEVEL OFF AT  
THIS CONDITION (AT LEAST SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS) THROUGH  
THURSDAY. SHOULD MOSTLY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN  
WATERS FRIDAY WIND-WISE, BUT SEAS MAY YET REMAIN ELEVATED TO  
SCA LEVELS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
UPDATED THE TIDE FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT TIDAL DEPARTURES. NO  
CHANGES MADE TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. WITH  
THE LATEST UPDATE, THE ONLY SITE STILL FORECAST TO GET TO MAJOR  
FLOODING IS BARNEGAT INLET AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BARNEGAT  
BAY. OTHERWISE, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS, DELAWARE BAY, AND  
SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE RARITAN BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS  
EXPECTED ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH  
TIDE, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.  
 
ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG  
THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES DUE TO THE  
VERY HIGH/DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY.  
 
IT LOOKS AS IF THE HIGH TIDE LATER TODAY WILL BE THE LAST TIDE  
OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THERE MAY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE  
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE  
A BETTER IDEA THE DEGREE AND EXTENT OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH  
THOSE CYCLES ONCE WE SEE THE TIDAL DEPARTURE TRENDS WITH TODAY'S  
HIGH TIDE.  
 
THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS EVENT, TIDAL FLOODING  
IMPACTS COULD LINGER LONGER ON BACK BAYS SUCH AS BARNEGAT BAY  
IN NJ AND THE INDIAN RIVER BAY, REHOBOTH BAY, AND LITTLE  
ASSAWOMAN BAY IN DE.  
 
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR OUR EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES  
ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-  
071-106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ012>014-020>027.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ017>019.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
DEZ002>004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-451>455.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM  
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/GUZZO  
SHORT TERM...RCM  
LONG TERM...RCM  
AVIATION...DESILVA/GUZZO/RCM  
MARINE...DESILVA/GUZZO/RCM  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI  
 
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