459  
FXUS61 KPHI 131913  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
313 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING IMPACTS TO THE REGION  
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A COMPLEX DOUBLE-BARREL COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW  
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NC IS BEGINNING TO PIVOT EAST INTO  
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME, A SECONDARY  
SURFACE LOW IS MEANDERING JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE  
DELAWARE BAY WHICH IS THE MAIN CULPRIT OF THE MISERABLE WEATHER  
OCCURING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF NC  
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST TONIGHT, THE LOW OFF OF OUR COAST WILL  
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND PIVOT SOUTH, WHILE MORPHING INTO THE OTHER  
LOW ON TUESDAY.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, GUSTY WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS SO FAR TODAY  
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UPWARDS OF 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, LESSER  
INLAND. THESE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT, THOUGH  
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MAY STILL LINGER. THE REGION WILL ALSO  
CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, INTERMITTENT  
SHOWERS, MIST, AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVELS  
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN COMPLETELY SATURATED WITH THE SURFACE  
LOW CONTINUING TO THROW PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARD THE COAST.  
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MORPH  
INTO THE PRIMARY LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CEASE FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY.  
STILL, SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MIST/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE  
COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS UP AROUND A 0.1-0.5 INCHES  
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST  
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM  
THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTH AND EAST.  
 
FOR TUESDAY, AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS IN STORE  
AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW  
DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO ERODE IN THE  
MORNING, SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH  
SUNSHINE RETURNING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THOUGH AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30  
MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO  
LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TO START THE PERIOD, A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED TO  
THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH A CLOSED UPPER-LOW OVER  
QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH  
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION UNDER ENHANCED  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER-LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL  
GRADUALLY OPEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND TAKE THE FORM OF A  
DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE COASTAL LOW WILL  
CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD  
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON  
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO OUR  
REGION.  
 
RESIDUAL CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NEAR  
THE NJ AND DE COASTS, AND SHOULD DIMINISH COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT.  
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S  
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND INTO FAR NORTHERN NJ, NEAR 50 ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF EASTERN PA AND NJ OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND  
COASTAL REGIONS, AND IN THE MID 50S FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,  
COASTAL REGIONS, AND THE DELMARVA.  
 
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY, WITH ONLY  
SOME MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS  
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NJ, AND THE DELMARVA,  
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. BEHIND THE  
FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN PA COUNTIES AND FAR NORTHERN NJ,  
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN PA  
AND NJ TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE DELMARVA. DESPITE THE COLD AIR  
ADVECTION, BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR  
FREEZE CONCERNS.  
 
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A CHILLY DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND  
A CONTINUED BREEZY NORTH WIND. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER  
50S TO LOWER 60S AREAWIDE. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BETTER  
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWERING WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES  
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID 30S FOR EASTERN PA AND MUCH OF NJ,  
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER  
FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR, COASTAL AREAS, AND THE DELMARVA. A  
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AREAS, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND  
ON HOW MUCH THE NORTHERLY BREEZE DIMINISHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD. THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA  
WHILE A RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US APPROACHES.  
THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY. BEYOND  
THIS, MODELS SUGGEST A TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO OUR AREA  
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE  
IN CONTROL. A SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY  
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO FEATURE FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING  
TREND, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT  
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
OVERALL, THESE LOOK LIKE THE TWO BEST WEATHER DAYS OF THE NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE  
ON SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW, POPS LOOKS TO BE IN THE CHANCE (30% OR  
GREATER) TO LIKELY (60% OR GREATER) RANGE, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY  
NIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE,  
BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING IN MODEL GUIDANCE, POPS  
DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN THIS IS SUBJECT TO  
CHANGE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE AVERAGE,AND NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
REST OF TODAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE  
REGION. LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS ARE TO PREVAIL FOR KMIV/KACY, WITH  
MVFR PREVAILING AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN,  
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS, MIST AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. NORTH-NORTHEAST  
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.  
MODERATE- LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL.  
 
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS (PRIMARILY CEILINGS) TO  
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONS TO  
SHOWERS, MIST AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHEAST  
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY NEAR KACY. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL.  
 
TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR CEILINGS BY  
MID-LATE MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z  
FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RESIDUAL  
LOW CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF I-95, ESPECIALLY EARLY.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 3:00 PM, HAVE DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING ON THE UPPER  
DELAWARE BAY TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT  
THROUGH TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE, REMAINING GALE WARNINGS REMAIN  
UNCHANGED WHICH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND  
TUESDAY.  
 
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE  
INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY  
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE  
ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH  
WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 15-25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.  
SEAS OF 10-14 FEET WILL ABATE TO AROUND 8-12 FEET TONIGHT AND  
ON TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, SHOWERS, MIST AND DRIZZLE  
LIKELY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO  
CONTINUE. WHILE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY,  
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-30 KT WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL  
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, GRADUALLY DECREASING  
FROM 6-10 FEET TO 4-6 FEET. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW  
5 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.  
WINDS BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
UPDATED THE TIDE FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT TIDAL DEPARTURES.  
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.  
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE, THE ONLY SITE STILL FORECAST TO GET TO  
MAJOR FLOODING IS BARNEGAT INLET AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
BARNEGAT BAY. OTHERWISE, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS, DELAWARE BAY,  
AND SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE RARITAN BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS  
EXPECTED ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH  
TIDE, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.  
 
ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AND DUNE BREACHING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG  
THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES DUE TO THE  
VERY HIGH/DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY.  
 
IT LOOKS AS IF THE HIGH TIDE LATER TODAY WILL BE THE LAST TIDE  
OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THERE MAY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE  
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE  
A BETTER IDEA THE DEGREE AND EXTENT OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING  
WITH THOSE CYCLES ONCE WE SEE THE TIDAL DEPARTURE TRENDS WITH  
TODAY'S HIGH TIDE.  
 
THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS EVENT, TIDAL FLOODING  
IMPACTS COULD LINGER LONGER ON BACK BAYS SUCH AS BARNEGAT BAY  
IN NJ AND THE INDIAN RIVER BAY, REHOBOTH BAY, AND LITTLE  
ASSAWOMAN BAY IN DE.  
 
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR OUR EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES  
ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-  
071-106.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ012>014-020>027.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ017>019.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
DEZ002>004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-451>455.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...COOPER  
NEAR TERM...DESILVA  
SHORT TERM...COOPER  
LONG TERM...COOPER  
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA  
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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