185  
FXUS61 KPHI 140755  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
355 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING IMPACTS TO THE REGION  
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY APPROACH  
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, WE STAY BREEZY, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL  
AREAS. WIND GUSTS ARE 20-30 MPH INLAND AND 30-35 MPH NEAR THE  
COAST. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN  
PLACE RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT  
RAIN. OUR COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY  
FROM THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL TAKE A LOT OF THE PRECIP  
WITH IT.  
 
DURING THE DAY TODAY, MOST OF THE PRECIP IS LOCATED CLOSER TO  
THE COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART. SOME GUIDANCE  
SHOWS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LEAD TO POCKETS OF  
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THE BEST  
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. WHAT REMAINS  
STUBBORN THROUGH TODAY IS THE CLOUD COVER. WE CONTINUE TO STAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY BEFORE SEEING A DECREASE IN THE  
CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. OUR WINDS STAY BREEZY  
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH INLAND AND 25-30 MPH NEAR THE COAST.  
HIGHS TODAY ARE IN THE 60S.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WHICH ALLOWS  
THE CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE AND THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES  
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE STILL ELEVATED A BIT INTO TONIGHT  
WITH INLAND GUSTS 15-20 MPH AND COASTAL AREAS 20-30 MPH. LOWS  
OVERNIGHT ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH SOME CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A  
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM CANADA,  
PROMOTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, NO  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGHS  
SHOULD BE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWS 70S, EXCEPT 50S  
IN THE POCONOS.  
 
COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA, RESULTING IN A STEADY  
NORTHWESTERLY WIND. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR, AND LOWS WILL  
DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.  
 
WITH THE HIGH TAKING ITS TIME BUILDING INTO THE AREA, WE'LL KEEP  
A NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT, SO THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN  
STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL  
BE MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE UPPER  
50S AND LOWER 60S.  
 
IT STILL APPEARS THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT, WITH THE HIGH CENTER STILL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, SUCH  
THAT WE'LL MOSTLY AVOID A FROST/FREEZE THREAT IN LOCATIONS WHERE  
THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. THE STEADY BREEZE WILL REMAIN,  
THOUGH A BIT WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT  
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO  
RELAX MORE AS THE COLD ADVECTION FINALLY DWINDLES. ANOTHER  
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPS UP A LITTLE, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, EXCEPT UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS.  
 
THE HIGHS SINKS TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH WARM  
ADVECTION BEGINNING ALOFT AS THE GRADIENT TURNS WESTERLY, THOUGH  
REMAINING LIGHT. SOME CLOUDS MAY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS WELL. LOWS  
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.  
 
A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING A BIT MORE  
CLOUD COVER, BUT ALSO NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS  
SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE  
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT REMAINING DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN  
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. LOWS SATURDAY  
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.  
 
WARM ADVECTION PEAKS ON SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL  
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING,  
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS, BUT IT STILL SHOULD BE THE  
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO  
MID 70S, EXCPET 60S IN THE POCONOS.  
 
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAIN, DEPENDING ON HOW THE DETAILS SET UP. LOWS SUNDAY  
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING BACK IN MONDAY, WITH DECREASING  
CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S, EXCEPT 50S  
IN THE POCONOS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS.  
VSBY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR BR/DZ. NNE WINDS  
AROUND 10 KT AT KRDG/KABE, AND 10 TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT  
GUSTS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. KACY MAY OCCASIONALLY STILL GUST  
TO NEAR 30 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON LOW CIGS WITH LOW  
CONFIDENCE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS.  
 
TODAY...IFR CEILINGS EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR CEILINGS BY MID-  
LATE MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z-20Z  
FROM WEST TO EAST. NNE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT. SUB-  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS FOR  
KACY/KMIV INITIALLY. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE  
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 20-25 KT WITH  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SEAS OF AROUND 8-12 FEET CONTINUE  
TODAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, MIST AND DRIZZLE LIKELY THROUGH  
TODAY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND  
25 KNOTS. SCAS WILL BE NEEDED FOR WIND AND PERSISTENT SEAS OF  
6-8 FEET.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY  
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WINDS AND/OR WAVES, AT LEAST ON THE  
OCEAN WATERS. DELAWARE BAY WILL NATURALLY HAVE MORE SUB-ADVISORY  
PERIODS.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND  
CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY.  
BACK BAYS REMAIN NEAR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS OCEAN COUNTY,  
BUT ELSEWHERE MOST AREAS ARE NOW NOTABLY BELOW MODERATE. ONE  
FINAL HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH MAY REACH WIDESPREAD MINOR IS  
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AND HAVE CONTINUED/EXPANDED COASTAL  
FLOOD ADVISORIES ACROSS OUR SHORE ZONES THRU 8 PM THIS EVENING.  
THEREAFTER, WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST SHOULD ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO  
SUBSIDE.  
 
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR OUR EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES  
ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.  
 
 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NJZ022>025.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020-  
026-027.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR NJZ020-026-027.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-  
004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-  
450.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431-451>455.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM  
NEAR TERM...GUZZO  
SHORT TERM...RCM  
LONG TERM...RCM  
AVIATION...GUZZO/RCM  
MARINE...GUZZO/RCM  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI  
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