378  
FXUS61 KPHI 151723  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
123 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
FOR THE AFTERNOON, WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE WITH A CLEARING SKY.  
THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT  
SINKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. THIS COLD FRONT LACKS A  
LOT OF MOISTURE, SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ONCE  
AGAIN BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WE  
GET SOME NOTICEABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS MAY  
GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT  
MOVING THROUGH, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S  
TO LOW 70S.  
 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE SEE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING  
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO ALLOW COLD AIR  
ADVECTION TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN  
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST. EVEN WITH SOME SPOTS FALLING  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONCERN FOR  
FROST AS THE COLDER SPOTS FOR TONIGHT HAVE ALREADY ENDED THEIR  
GROWING SEASON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH TONIGHT WILL ALSO  
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR FROST. WE STAY MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT  
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES ON THURSDAY, KEEPING A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN PLACE,  
BUT OTHERWISE PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
THE HIGH ONLY MOVES SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT,  
KEEPING ENOUGH GRADIENT OVERHEAD TO PREVENT A STRONG RADIATIONAL  
NIGHT THANKS TO A CONTINUED BREEZE, DESPITE CLEAR SKIES. LOWS  
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
 
EVEN FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST, SO WHILE  
THE GRADIENT IS FINALLY STARTING TO RELAX MORE, THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF SUN, SO HIGHS FRIDAY  
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT MAY TRY TO RADIATE AS THE HIGH FINALLY MOVES  
NEARLY OVERHEAD, BUT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE STARTING  
ALOFT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
A SUBTLE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY,  
PROVIDING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER BUT ALSO BOOSTING TEMPS. HIGHS  
SATURDAY RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT ON SATURDAY NIGHT  
WHICH MAY PRECLUDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. ADDITIONAL CLOUD  
COVER MAY ALSO BEGIN MOVING OVERHEAD AS A STRONGER STORM STARTS  
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. THUS, LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN  
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 
DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
STRENGTHENING STORM TO OUR WEST, STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD  
ALSO PROVIDE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO MAKE SUNDAY THE WARMEST OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM LIKELY DOESN'T START SPREADING RAIN  
INTO THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND  
PLENTY OF CLOUDS, IT SHOULD BE THE MILDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
THE STORM PULLS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. EXACT  
TIMING STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT RIGHT NOW ODDS FAVOR MOST  
RAIN OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY, WITH SOME DRYING AND MAYBE  
EVEN CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER ON. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND  
IT, NOT TO MENTION THE RAIN AND SHOWERS, HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD  
STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE, MONDAY NIGHT COULD  
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND MANY CLOUDS AROUND, OR COULD SEE PARTIAL  
CLEARING. FOR NOW KEEPING LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER  
40S.  
 
UPPER TROUGH MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH COULD KEEP  
CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY, BUT NOT A WASHOUT. HIGHS  
TUESDAY RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THROUGH 00Z...SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH ~20-22Z BEFORE  
BECOMING SKC. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
THURSDAY...VFR/SKC. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE  
LATE SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING FRONT INCREASES THE RISK OF  
SHOWERS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ARE  
IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT  
ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 4 PM TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT.  
 
FOR TODAY, A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE  
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 25-30 KT FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS OF 6-8 FEET.  
OVERNIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30  
KT. SEAS REMAIN AT 6-8 FEET. FAIR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF SCA  
CONDITIONS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THRU THURSDAY DUE TO  
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND OCEAN WAVES UP TO 8  
FEET.  
 
SCA LIKELY WILL NEED ADDITIONAL EXTENSION THROUGH AT LEAST  
THURSDAY NIGHT IF NOT PARTLY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS WINDS AND  
SEAS WILL TAKE SOME ADDITIONAL TIME TO RELAX.  
 
BEYOND FRIDAY, WINDS GO SOLIDLY SUB-SCA, WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS ON  
THE OCEAN MAY STILL FLIRT WITH THE 5 FT SCA CRITERIA, BUT  
OVERALL A CALMER PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
GREATER RISK OF SCA RETURNS SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD  
FRONT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND OCEAN WAVES BUILDING  
BACK SOLIDLY ABOVE 5 FEET.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY  
WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THURSDAY. WINDS LIKELY GUST ABOVE 20 MPH  
ALONG WITH RH'S DOWN BELOW 30 PERCENT DURING THE MIDDAY AND  
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE  
WARRANTED, DEPENDING ON FUEL MOISTURES.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
BARNEGAT BAY AND THE BACK BAYS OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE WERE SLOW  
TO DRAIN, BUT MOST IMPACTS HAVE NOW ENDED AS WATER LEVELS  
CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE REMAINING ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO  
EXPIRE. NO FURTHER TIDAL ISSUES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  
 
 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM  
NEAR TERM...GUZZO  
SHORT TERM...RCM  
LONG TERM...RCM  
AVIATION...DESILVA/GUZZO/RCM  
MARINE...GUZZO/RCM  
FIRE WEATHER...PHI  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI  
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