342  
FXUS61 KPHI 151909  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
309 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN COOL  
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND,  
THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT  
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. DRIER AND SEASONABLE  
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND  
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT  
RAPIDLY IN ITS WAKE AS BOTH DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION  
FILTER IN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST UP TO 20-25 MPH THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT, WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CAA  
WILL CONTINUE AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. STILL DO  
NOT THINK FRONT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A THREAT IN THE COOLER AREAS  
AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST  
FORMATION.  
 
FOR THURSDAY, WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS TOP OUT IN  
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER  
COMPARED TO TODAY AS A LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC DEEPENS.  
THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA  
WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FIRE CONCERNS...MORE ON  
THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONLY MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT,  
KEEPING ENOUGH GRADIENT OVERHEAD TO PREVENT A STRONG  
RADIATIONAL NIGHT THANKS TO A CONTINUED 5-10 MPH BREEZE,  
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER  
40S.  
 
EVEN FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST, SO WHILE  
THE GRADIENT IS FINALLY STARTING TO RELAX MORE, THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF SUN, SO HIGHS FRIDAY  
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT MAY TRY TO RADIATE AS THE HIGH FINALLY MOVES  
NEARLY OVERHEAD, BUT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE STARTING  
ALOFT, WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT.  
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A SUBTLE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY,  
PROVIDING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER BUT ALSO BOOSTING TEMPS. HIGHS  
SATURDAY RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT ON SATURDAY NIGHT  
WHICH MAY PRECLUDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. ADDITIONAL CLOUD  
COVER MAY ALSO BEGIN MOVING OVERHEAD AS A STRONGER STORM STARTS  
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. THUS, LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN  
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 
DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
STRENGTHENING STORM TO OUR WEST, STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD  
ALSO PROVIDE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO MAKE SUNDAY THE WARMEST OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM LIKELY DOESN'T START SPREADING RAIN  
INTO THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND  
PLENTY OF CLOUDS, IT SHOULD BE THE MILDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
THE STORM PULLS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. EXACT  
TIMING STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT RIGHT NOW ODDS FAVOR MOST  
RAIN OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY, WITH SOME DRYING AND MAYBE  
EVEN CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER ON. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND  
IT, NOT TO MENTION THE RAIN AND SHOWERS, HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD  
STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE, MONDAY NIGHT COULD  
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND MANY CLOUDS AROUND, OR COULD SEE PARTIAL  
CLEARING. FOR NOW KEEPING LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER  
40S.  
 
UPPER TROUGH MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH COULD KEEP  
CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY, BUT NOT A WASHOUT. HIGHS  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
60S AND LOWS LARGELY IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THROUGH 00Z...SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH ~20-22Z BEFORE  
BECOMING SKC. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
THURSDAY...VFR/SKC. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUB-VFR LIKELY  
DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS AN APPROACHING  
FRONT INCREASES THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ARE IN  
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE DELAWARE  
BAY GO INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL  
INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT.  
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET.  
FAIR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF SCA CONDITIONS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY DUE TO CONTINUED  
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS AND OCEAN WAVES OF 4-7 FEET  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO FRIDAY.  
 
BEYOND FRIDAY, WINDS GO SOLIDLY SUB-SCA, WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS ON  
THE OCEAN MAY STILL FLIRT WITH THE 5 FT SCA CRITERIA, BUT  
OVERALL A CALMER PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
FAIR WEATHER.  
 
GREATER RISK OF SCA RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AT COLD FRONT  
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND  
OCEAN WAVES BUILDING BACK SOLIDLY ABOVE 5 FEET. RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST  
WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY WILL TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY. WINDS  
LIKELY GUST AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH WITH MINRH VALUES IN THE 30-40%  
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, A SPECIAL WEATHER  
STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED, DEPENDING ON HOW LOW FUEL MOISTURES  
ARE. MAY NEED TO REACH OUT TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND  
EVALUATE AS NEEDED.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ451>455.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN  
NEAR TERM...DESILVA  
SHORT TERM...RCM/STAARMANN  
LONG TERM...RCM/STAARMANN  
AVIATION...DESILVA/RCM  
MARINE...DESILVA/RCM  
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
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