929
FXUS61 KPHI 291734
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
134 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION WHILE LOW
PRESSURE IS MOVING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREA. A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS DEEPER ACROSS
DELMARVA AND SOUTH/EAST NJ WHICH ARE DOWNWIND OF THE MILD OCEAN
WATERS. DRIER AIR IS FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTH
NJ. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NJ AND OVER DELAWARE BAY.
AS WE PROCEED THRU WEDNESDAY, WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN RATHER LOW AND ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE S/E AREAS. CLOUDS WILL BE MORE COMMON S/E TOO
WHILE SUNSHINE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS N/W AREAS. LATER TODAY, THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING MORE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOR DELMARVA AND PERHAPS SE PA BY SUNSET. IT'LL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S N/W AND UPPER
50S/LOW 60S S/E. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE STORM DEPARTS ON FRIDAY, STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL PHASE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS, AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT TOWARDS OUR AREA. THE TRACK OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED
EASTWARD WITH ELONGATED LOW TRACKING PRETTY MUCH DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. A MORE OVERHEAD TRACK WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT,
AS OUR AREA WOULD NOT BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE
FARTHER WEST SOLUTION IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, CONTINUING AND INTENSIFYING INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL RATES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALL HAVING AROUND 0.5-1" IN
SIX HOURS AREA WIDE, THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE 1-2"
IN A SIX HOUR PERIOD. THIS STILL WOULD NOT BRING MUCH OF ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS, OUTSIDE OF POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN AREAS,
GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN. IT MAINLY SHOULD BE A BENEFICIAL
RAIN, WITH A WIDESPREAD 1-2" ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING PERIOD, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
NEAR 3" POSSIBLE. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD ADD A
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE HEAVIEST RAIN, AND COULD ALSO HELP MIX
DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS. SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. RAIN MOVES OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY, POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
BAND OF RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, A 45-55 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE FAR OFF THE SURFACE (BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000
FEET OFF THE GROUND). THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED OUT OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE COAST
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME AREAS IF THIS CONFIDENCE INCREASES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. WINDS DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD, WITH THINGS DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER, A
STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS COLD
ADVECTION RAMPS UP, RESULTING IN A BRISK AND BREEZY HALLOWEEN.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THE WEST, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ONCE AGAIN MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH A STRATOCUMULUS DECK DEVELOPING
OVER THE TERRAIN AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THINGS BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN TIGHT GRADIENT OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT A BIT, BUT TEMPERATURES
WON'T TRULY TANK GIVEN A 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WIND OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS STILL NEAR 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BREEZY AND BLUSTERY ON SATURDAY WITH THE GRADIENT STILL
OVERHEAD. ONCE WE START MIXING OUT, GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. LIKELY WILL SEE A STRATOCUMULUS DECK DEVELOP UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
THE WINDY PATTERN BREAKS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD COULD
RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT, AGAIN PREVENTING
TEMPERATURES FROM TRULY TANKING. HOWEVER, LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS LOWS POTENTIALLY GETTING NEAR FROST CRITERIA FOR WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
SUNDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD AND
OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE NEAR OR JUST A TOUCH BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY, THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...VFR AT THE I-95 AND LEHIGH VALLEY
TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS AT KACY/KMIV. WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-25 KT AT KACY/KMIV.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MOVE IN. CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING OUT
OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 13Z WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE (40-50%) COULD REDUCE
VSBY DOWN AS LOW AS 1 NM. SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) OF THUNDER.
EAST TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR TIMING, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WIND FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR INITIALLY WITH CLEARING/IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OR
WEST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE WHEN
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY.
FRIDAY...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KTS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. WIND GUSTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 25-30 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET.
THE SCA IS REPLACED BY A GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND GET UPWARDS OF 35
TO 40 KT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. SEAS 8 TO 12 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A 12 HOUR
PERIOD OR SO TO AROUND 25 KT, SHIFTING FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
WEST. AT THE VERY LEAST, AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED, BUT THE GALE
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE RUN ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS 7 TO
10 FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALES
OCCURRING WITH WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.
UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BUT LINGERING SCA
CONDITONS LIKELY (50-60%) THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF
NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER,
AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS WILL PERSIST TODAY DUE TO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM THAT IS NOW
MOVING OUT TO SEA. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS IS FORECAST LATER
TODAY, THEN A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY, PUTTING AN END
TO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT.
SURGE AND TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NE TO E WINDS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDES TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR OCEAN, ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IN NEW
JERSEY, AND SUSSEX AND KENT COUNTIES IN DELAWARE. WIDESPREAD
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED BOTH DAYS. MODERATE COASTAL
FLOOD IMPACTS REMAIN UNLIKELY.
INCREASED TIDAL LEVELS EXPAND INWARD TOWARD THE DELAWARE BAY,
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, NORTHERN NJ COAST, RARITAN BAY, AND
EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SINCE THE HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE CURRENT
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE TIDE LEVELS DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING STILL APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. AGAIN THOUGH, IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR FOR MOST AREAS, AND
NOTHING LIKE THE STORM IN EARLY OCTOBER. REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST UPDATES AND INFORMATION REGARDING THIS LONG
DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.
CLIMATE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE DAILY
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR THE DATE:
OCTOBER 30TH DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 1.50" IN 1917 & 1935
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 1.28" IN 2021
AC MARINA (55N) 6.02" IN 1886
GEORGETOWN (GED) 0.97" IN 1955
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 4.00" IN 1935
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 1.77" IN 1935
READING (RDG) 1.22" IN 1973
TRENTON (TTN) 2.90" IN 1866
WILMINGTON (ILG) 1.24" IN 1935
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ020-
022>027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
020-026-027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ022>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-453>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ453>455.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/OHARA
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
CLIMATE...STAARMANN
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