257
FXUS61 KPHI 292006
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PROVINCE OF QUEBEC MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT, THEN PASSES OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY IN THE
NEW WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO
MEANDER, RESULTING IN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND WITHIN INLAND AREAS OF DELMARVA AND SOUTH JERSEY, WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL THEME
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THAT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PHASE WITH A STRONGER LOW
OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
OUR AREA TONIGHT. A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS (80-100%) IN FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL GIVEN HOW
DRY WE HAVE BEEN, BUT SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE SHOWN A SMALL
CHANCE FOR 1" PER HOUR RATES. THESE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE ISOLATED THOUGH AND THINK A MRGL RISK (1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN IS APPROPRIATE TO COVER THE THREAT. A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL RECEIVE JUST A BENEFICIAL RAIN, THOUGH IF THE HEAVIEST
RATES END UP OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR, THERE COULD BE SOME
FLOODING. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, A WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, WITH MOST FALLING OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR
PERIOD.
IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE ASPECTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE THREAT HAS
TICKED UP A BIT, BUT IS STILL SMALL. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
BACK WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW, WITH AT LEAST PART OF OUR AREA
GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND/OR NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. WITH
SUCH A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT (40-50 KT AT 2000 FEET), IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FOR SEVERE-LEVEL GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (30-45 KT IN THE 0-1 KM
LAYER) COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF SPIN-UP AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER, SO IT IS A CLASSIC HIGH SHEAR-LOW
CAPE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW,
THINKING THE SEVERE WIND/TORNADO RISK IS MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-195 AND THE PA TURNPIKE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THOSE AREAS.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL STILL BE QUITE GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG 40-55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
NOT BE FAR OFF THE SURFACE, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SOME GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. 12Z GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY
AMONG THE CAMS, RAMPED UP THE WINDS, MAINLY OVER NEW JERSEY. THE
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOLLOWED SUIT, WITH THE NEWEST HREF
HAVING AROUND A 60-90% CHANCE OF WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST, WITH A 40-60%
CHANCE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF NJ. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THE NJ COASTAL COUNTIES (MONMOUTH, OCEAN, SE
BURLINGTON, ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY COUNTY) AS WELL AS THE
DELAWARE BEACHES. THE WIND ADVISORY GOES THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST, WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH
GUSTS PRIMARILY IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE, UP TO 40 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MB WILL BE 40 TO 50 KT, AND BUFKIT
PROFILES SHOWING STRONG MIXING UP TO AROUND 850 MB. THIS WILL
YIELD WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH 35 TO 40 MPH
GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES. ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY, AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S, AND AROUND 60 FOR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SUNNY AND DRY ON SATURDAY. SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING ON MONDAY. SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CALM AT NIGHT, AND IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ENOUGH, RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN THE PINE BARRENS OF NEW JERSEY
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL UNDERWAY.
MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES BY TUESDAY, BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR NORTH IT
WILL GET. WILL FOLLOW NBM GUIDANCE AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ON TUESDAY FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEW WEEK COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL STILL BE JUST
SHY OF NORMAL.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...VFR AT THE I-95 AND LEHIGH VALLEY
TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS AT KACY/KMIV. WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-25 KT AT KACY/KMIV.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MOVE IN. CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING OUT
OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 13Z WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE (40-50%)
COULD REDUCE VSBY DOWN AS LOW AS 1 NM. SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) OF
THUNDER. EAST TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS
30 TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR TIMING, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS LATE.
FRIDAY...VFR. W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS.
WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NSW.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 25-30 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11
FEET.
THE SCA IS REPLACED BY A GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND GET UPWARDS OF 35
TO 40 KT BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. SEAS 8 TO 12 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SUB-GALE FORCE WINDS, THOUGH AN
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF
NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE, THE DELAWARE BAY, THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND POSSIBLY THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE AND TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY, PUTTING AN END TO THE
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDS, THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR OCEAN,
ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY, AND SUSSEX AND
KENT COUNTIES IN DELAWARE REMAIN UNCHANGED. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING IN THE
BACK BAYS OF REHOBOTH BAY, INDIAN RIVER BAY INLET, AND LITTLE
ASSAWOMAN BAY WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, AND BARNEGAT BAY WITH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE RARITAN BAY, NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST, THE
REMAINDER OF THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.
FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH WATER MAKES IT INTO THE RIVER.
FOR THIS REASON, WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME AND EVALUATE WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
REMAIN ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST UPDATES AND INFORMATION
REGARDING THIS LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.
CLIMATE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE DAILY
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR THE DATE:
OCTOBER 30TH DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 1.50" IN 1917 & 1935
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 1.28" IN 2021
AC MARINA (55N) 6.02" IN 1886
GEORGETOWN (GED) 0.97" IN 1955
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 4.00" IN 1935
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 1.77" IN 1935
READING (RDG) 1.22" IN 1973
TRENTON (TTN) 2.90" IN 1866
WILMINGTON (ILG) 1.24" IN 1935
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ020-
022>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NJZ012>014-021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
020-026-027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ022>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MDZ012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI
CLIMATE...PHI
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