213
FXUS61 KPHI 301113
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
713 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, THEN PASSES OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ALSO FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. AS THE STORM DEPARTS ON
FRIDAY, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP.
AS OF 7 AM, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE
INCOMING STORM THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THROUGH DAWN AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE.
THE WELL ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY. IT'S STRENGTHENING EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE STRENGTHENING EVEN FURTHER INTO
FRIDAY TO NEAR 975 MB. AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND, COLD
ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS LOCALLY.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ADD A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO THE RAIN, WHICH WILL RESULT IN BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE
BEEN, BUT SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE SHOWN A SMALL CHANCE FOR 1" PER
HOUR RATES. THESE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH
AND THINK A MRGL RISK (1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FROM WPC IS
APPROPRIATE TO COVER THE THREAT. A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WILL RECEIVE JUST A BENEFICIAL RAIN, THOUGH IF THE HEAVIEST
RATES END UP OVER URBANIZED, POOR DRAINAGE, OR LOW LYING AREAS,
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR FLOODING. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, A
WIDESPREAD 1-2" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED (LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR
3" POSSIBLE), WITH MOST FALLING OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD.
IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE ASPECTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE THREAT HAS
TICKED UP A BIT, BUT IS STILL MARGINAL. AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERN
OR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA SHOULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AND/OR NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. WITH SUCH A STRONG WIND FIELD
ALOFT (40-50 KT AT 1000-2000 FEET), IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR
SEVERE-LEVEL GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (30-45 KT IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER) COULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF SPIN-UP AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
MEAGER, SO IT IS A CLASSIC HIGH SHEAR- LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
GIVEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW, THINKING THE
SEVERE WIND/TORNADO RISK IS MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I- 195 AND
THE PA TURNPIKE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE AREAS.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL STILL BE QUITE GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG 40-55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
SWEEP NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN SOME GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE, STRATIFORM RAIN WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE
FALLING AND HELPING MIX DOWN STRONGER GUSTS. BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOW 40 KT WINDS ONLY ABOUT 1,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND FOR A
FEW HOURS MIDDAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH RAPID PRESSURE FALLS (>1
MB/HOUR) AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS ALL SEEMS TO POINT
TOWARD OVER PERFORMING WINDS FROM WHAT ONE MAY EXPECT TO SEE
FROM AN EASTERLY ONSHORE WIND. WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE INLAND, AND 40-50 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE
COASTS OF NJ AND DE. EVEN IF WE DON'T GET TRUE WIDESPREAD 45-50
MPH GUSTS INLAND, WE STILL HAVE LOTS OF TREES WITH FULL FOLIAGE,
SO THE UNUSUAL ESE WIND DIRECTION, HEAVY RAINFALL DURING WINDS,
AND MINIMAL LEAF DROP COULD ALL POINT MORE IMPACTS THAN
TYPICALLY ANTICIPATED WITH THIS LEVEL OF WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY
EXPANSION WAS CONSIDERED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW GIVEN THE
SETUP. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR OUR DELMARVA
COUNTIES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR 35-45 MPH WIND GUSTS
THIS MORNING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AS
PREVIOUS ISSUED.
A LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERS THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST AROUND 10-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS INTO FRIDAY AND CONTINUES STRENGTHENING, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL OCCUR UNDER
MODEST COLD ADVECTION AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME. LOW LEVEL (925 TO 850 MB LEVEL) WIND
FIELDS WILL INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD 40 TO 50 MPH WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS, LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON. IMPACTS FROM TREE
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES COULD BE EXACERBATED BY THE WET GROUND
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S 1-2" OF RAIN AND FOLIAGE REMAINING ON
MANY TREES (ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE PHILLY METRO). ANY
WIND ADVISORIES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WILL NOT BE ISSUED
UNTIL THE CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE EXPIRED OR CANCELED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS. ASIDE FROM A STRAY SPRINKLE NORTH OF I- 78, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. GUSTY WINDS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL STILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE ARRIVING HIGH. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S
ARE EXPECTED.
DAYTIME SATURDAY COULD STILL BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE. A DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60.
WINDS TRULY BEGIN TO RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
30S EXPECTED WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
PINE BARRENS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ONGOING, IF IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE MID 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60 ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR A FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER OUR
REGION. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS
DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
FOLLOWING THIS, THE MAIN SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A CUTOFF LOW AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IN THIS AREA,
GRADUALLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, SUPPORTED BY THE POLAR JET STREAM.
LATEST GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SYSTEMS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE LINGERING SURFACE HIGH
MAY REMAIN SANDWICHED ACROSS OUR REGION, KEEPING BOTH SYSTEMS TO
OUR SOUTH AND NORTH, RESPECTIVELY. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN
BEGINS TO BUILD IN, CONTINUING TO BLOCK THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH,
AND POTENTIALLY KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOSED
LOWS OFTEN RESULT IN LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTS SO THIS DYNAMIC
SITUATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME, POPS AROUND 20-25% AT BEST ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
(CURRENTLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN EACH SYSTEM POTENTIALLY MAKES
ITS CLOSEST PASS AT THE AREA).
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES
MIDDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME THUNDER, SO
HAVE INCLUDED A TAF MENTION IN THE TEMPO GROUPS. EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30-40 KTS. WINDS WILL
LESSEN AFTER 18Z AND SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE AROUND 21Z ONWARD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING
RESTRICTIONS, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING DETAILS
CONVEYED IN THE TAFS.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR EARLY, THEN SOME MVFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
10-15 KTS, WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS BUT LINGERING WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TODAY FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KTS. SEAS 8-12 FEET. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 12-18 HOURS
STARTING LATER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WESTERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEAS 6-10
FEET. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LINGERING GALE FORCE GUSTS
LIKELY TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
DECREASING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED ONCE THE GALES CEASE AS WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF
NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE, THE DELAWARE BAY, THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE
AND TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TODAY AS
A RESULT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, PUTTING AN END TO THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDS, THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR OCEAN,
ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY, AND SUSSEX AND
KENT COUNTIES IN DELAWARE REMAIN UNCHANGED. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING IN THE
BACK BAYS OF REHOBOTH BAY, INDIAN RIVER BAY INLET, AND LITTLE
ASSAWOMAN BAY AT EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE, AND IN BARNEGAT BAY WITH
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE RARITAN BAY, NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST, THE
REMAINDER OF THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT
BETWEEN WINDS CONTINUING TO PUSH WATER UPSTREAM INTO THE RIVER
AS WELL AS FRESHWATER RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL INCREASING WATER
LEVELS, THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT HIGH
TIDE LATER THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER
FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
REMAIN ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST UPDATES AND INFORMATION
REGARDING THIS LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.
CLIMATE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE DAILY
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR THE DATE:
OCTOBER 30TH DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 1.50" IN 1917 & 1935
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 1.28" IN 2021
AC MARINA (55N) 6.02" IN 1886
GEORGETOWN (GED) 0.97" IN 1955
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 4.00" IN 1935
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 1.77" IN 1935
READING (RDG) 1.22" IN 1973
TRENTON (TTN) 2.90" IN 1866
WILMINGTON (ILG) 1.24" IN 1935
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ020-
022>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-021.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ013-014-020-
026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NJZ017>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ022>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ004.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ015-019-
020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ452.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ453>455.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/MPS
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/STAARMANN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL
CLIMATE...STAARMANN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page