587
FXUS61 KPHI 310813
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
413 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WINDS WILL BE HOWLING THIS HALLOWEEN AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT
IMPACTED THE REGION ON THURSDAY DEPARTS THE REGION. OTHERWISE,
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE
DRY OUT FROM YESTERDAY'S RAIN.
A LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE THROUGH DAWN.
AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO TODAY, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLE. THIS WILL OCCUR
UNDER MODEST COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE ONGOING TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PIVOT THROUGH DURING THE
DAYTIME, WHICH WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, EVEN IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL (925 TO 850 MB LEVEL)
WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER EAST AND CLOSER TOWARD THE COAST. THIS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20-35 MPH AND
WIDESPREAD 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS, LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ AND
NEAR THE COAST.
IMPACTS FROM THE WINDS, WHICH MAY INCLUDE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES, COULD BE EXACERBATED BY THE WET GROUND FROM THURSDAY'S 1-3"
OF RAIN AND FOLIAGE REMAINING ON MANY TREES (ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE PHILLY METRO). A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND
WHERE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA (46 MPH OR HIGHER). THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE ADVISORY AREA. WHILE THE PEAK OF THE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED BY 8 PM, SCATTERED GUSTS NEAR 40 TO 50 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS AND
CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP, RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS MUCH OF OUR PA AND
NJ COUNTIES LIKELY WILL NOT SEE MUCH SUN TODAY, BUT DELMARVA SHOULD
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS. ASIDE FROM A
STRAY SPRINKLE NORTH OF I-78, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE FRIGHTENING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE NIGHT, BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 10-20 MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY UNDER
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
DAYTIME SATURDAY COULD STILL BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE. A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY THOUGH WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60. WINDS TRULY BEGIN TO RELAX
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED. FROST WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE PINE BARRENS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ONGOING, IF ENOUGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE.
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S (COOLER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS). TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO BE WARMER AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A STRAY SHOWER
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE LOW BEGINNING
TO LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLVING
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT WILL DRIVE OUT WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH STILL AS A CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS A KEY FACTOR IN THE
FORECAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CYCLOGENESIS OF A NEW SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THE CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE QUESTION AT THIS TIME
THOUGH LOOKS TO BE THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW.
POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR OVERALL WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, PEAKING
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MAINLY AROUND 20% SOUTH OF I-78 AND
AROUND 30% NORTH OF THERE AS A SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTHWARD WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN
THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN STILL LOOKS TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH, A NEW TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION, AND BRINGING
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO LOOK
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...INITIALLY VFR, HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 2000-3000 FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR ABE/RDG/TTN, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE, ANY CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
BY 16Z AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT LATER IN THE DAY. THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 30-40 KTS AFTER 16Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WINDS, LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY TODAY.
TONIGHT...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-35
KTS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 06Z, BUT
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH A CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN.
TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
6 AM, WHEN A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH SEAS 6-10 FEET. THE GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED IN TIME BY A FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED ONCE THE GALE WARNING ENDS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING 15-25 KTS AND SEAS 4-7 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND SEAS 5-7 FEET.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN
5 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WINDS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT BEYOND THE CURRENT HAZARDS.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDS, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR OCEAN COUNTY, NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY, DE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS LINGERING WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BACK BAYS OF BARNEGAT BAY, REHOBOTH BAY,
INDIAN RIVER INLET BAY, JEFFERSON CREEK, AND LITTLE ASSAWOMAN
BAY AS WATER HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRAINING OUT OF THESE BACK BAYS.
ALL OTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT THIS TIME.
REMAIN ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST UPDATES AND INFORMATION
REGARDING THIS LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020-
026.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR DEZ001>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>454.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/COOPER
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/STAARMANN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL
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