799
FXUS61 KPHI 311128
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
728 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WICKED WINDS WILL BE HOWLING THIS HALLOWEEN AS THE STRONG STORM
SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE REGION ON THURSDAY DEPARTS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS WE DRY OUT FROM YESTERDAY'S RAIN.
AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO TODAY,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLE. THIS
WILL OCCUR UNDER MODEST COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE ONGOING
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PIVOT
THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME, WHICH WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, EVEN IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLOUD
COVER. LOW LEVEL (925 TO 850 MB LEVEL) WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE
TO 35-50 KTS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
EAST AND CLOSER TOWARD THE COAST. THIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
TO WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20-35 MPH AND WIDESPREAD 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS, LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ AND NEAR THE
COAST.
IMPACTS FROM THE WINDS, WHICH MAY INCLUDE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES, COULD BE EXACERBATED BY THE WET GROUND FROM THURSDAY'S
1-3" OF RAIN AND FOLIAGE REMAINING ON MANY TREES (ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE PHILLY METRO). A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCLUDING THE EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND WHERE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (46 MPH OR HIGHER). THE ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE ADVISORY AREA.
WHILE THE PEAK OF THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED BY 8 PM,
SCATTERED GUSTS NEAR 40 TO 50 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TOWARD THE
COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS
AND CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP, RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS MUCH OF
OUR PA AND NJ COUNTIES LIKELY WILL NOT SEE MUCH SUN TODAY, BUT
DELMARVA SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AFTER SOME MORNING
CLOUDS. ASIDE FROM A STRAY SPRINKLE NORTH OF I-78, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
THE FRIGHTENING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE NIGHT,
BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 10-20 MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY UNDER SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
DAYTIME SATURDAY COULD STILL BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE. A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60. WINDS TRULY
BEGIN TO RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S
EXPECTED. FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE PINE BARRENS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
REMAINS ONGOING, IF ENOUGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE.
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (COOLER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE WARMER AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE.
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT CAN'T
BE RULED OUT WITH THE LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLVING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT WILL DRIVE OUT WEATHER OVER
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH STILL
AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS A
KEY FACTOR IN THE FORECAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CYCLOGENESIS OF A NEW
SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THE CLOSED LOW
PROGRESSES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
QUESTION AT THIS TIME THOUGH LOOKS TO BE THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW. POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR
OVERALL WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, PEAKING DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. MAINLY AROUND 20% SOUTH OF I-78 AND AROUND 30% NORTH OF
THERE AS A SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN THIS
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN STILL LOOKS TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE REGION
DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH, A NEW
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION,
AND BRINGING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO LOOK
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 2000-3000 FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR ABE/RDG/TTN, BUT CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING OF THIS IS LOW. AS OF 11Z, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS, OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT LATER IN THE DAY.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO
30-40 KTS AFTER 16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WINDS, LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TODAY.
TONIGHT...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
25-35 KTS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
06Z, BUT SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN.
TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM, WHEN A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SEAS 6-10 FEET. THE GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED IN
TIME BY A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE GALE WARNING ENDS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING 15-25 KTS AND
SEAS 4-7 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND SEAS 5-7
FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KT AND
SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS ARE STILL ABOVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN THE BACK BAYS OF BARNEGAT BAY, REHOBOTH BAY, INDIAN RIVER
INLET BAY, JEFFERSON CREEK, AND LITTLE ASSAWOMAN BAY. WILL GO
AHEAD AND EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM.
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WINDS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT BEYOND THE CURRENT HAZARDS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020-
026.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>454.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/COOPER
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/STAARMANN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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