081
FXUS61 KPHI 311738
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
138 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIES NEAR THE EASTERN CANADA/MAINE BORDER.
A DEEP H5 TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHEAST/OHIO VALLEY/MID-
ATLANTIC. A STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS A SURGE OF
45 TO 50 KT AT 925-850 MB. THIS WILL KEEP WEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH WITH 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT, BUT CAN
PROBABLY BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN THAT.
BREEZY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FINALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, THOUGH COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY AND THE H5 TROUGH IS REPLACED
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION, AND WHILE IT WILL NOT PRODUCE SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS, THERE WILL BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
WINDS TRULY BEGIN TO RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
30S EXPECTED. FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE
IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE PINE BARRENS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
REMAINS ONGOING, IF ENOUGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE.
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (COOLER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE WARMER AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE.
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT CAN'T
BE RULED OUT WITH THE LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLVING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT WILL DRIVE OUT WEATHER OVER
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH STILL
AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS A
KEY FACTOR IN THE FORECAST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CYCLOGENESIS OF A NEW
SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THE CLOSED LOW
PROGRESSES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
QUESTION AT THIS TIME THOUGH LOOKS TO BE THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW. POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR
OVERALL WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, PEAKING DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. MAINLY AROUND 20% SOUTH OF I-78 AND AROUND 30% NORTH OF
THERE AS A SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN THIS
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN STILL LOOKS TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE REGION
DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH, A NEW
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION,
AND BRINGING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO LOOK
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS 4000-5000 FT. W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT WITH 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR/BECOMING SKC. W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT, DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING, INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN.
TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS WITH WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS. GUSTS
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 35 KT ON DELAWARE BAY AND THE OCEAN
WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE OCEAN WATERS, GALES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNINGS
END, AS WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE
OCEAN TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KT AND
SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER HAS QUICKLY DRAINED FROM THE REMAINING BACK BAYS THUS
PROMPTING THE CANCELLATION OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ACROSS
SUSSEX CO, DE AND OCEAN CO, NJ. NO FURTHER TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>454.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/COOPER
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/MPS
MARINE...AKL/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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