812
FXUS61 KPHI 010803
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND MAY BRING SOME IMPACTS
TO PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH
MID-WEEK, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT OTHERWISE, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO RIGHT AROUND 60.
WINDS TRULY BEGIN TO RELAX TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW LONG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DO THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
WIDESPREAD FREEZE CONCERNS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS
ONGOING. HOWEVER, ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO SETUP, PARTICULARLY IN
SHELTERED LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR SUCH AS THE
PINE BARRENS IN NEW JERSEY AND THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAINS OF
DELMARVA. FOR THESE AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS
ONGOING, FROST STILL LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT, BUT
HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE, LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (COOLER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF BOTH UPPER AIR AND
SURFACE FEATURES REMAINS UNCLEAR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LOW TO BECOME CUT OFF. WITH THAT SAID, MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES AT LEAST A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A RELATIVELY
BENIGN EVENT OFFERING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME FOR NOW. REGARDLESS, POPS REMAIN AROUND 20-40% ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL DURING
THIS TIME, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABLE, SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
SEE SOME RAIN, THOUGH AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHT (LESS THAN
0.10"). THE FRONT WILL USHER IN AIR THAT'S NOTABLY DRIER, BUT
NOT NECESSARILY NOTABLY COOLER. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN
A SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC.
TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
A SHORTWAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
RAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUICK HITTING SYSTEM,
AGAIN WITH RAIN AMOUNTS REMAINING LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD BE SEASONABLE, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. A FEW
LINGERING GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH TOWARD MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS, MOST LIKELY
FAVORING A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VFR
CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS, MOST LIKELY
FAVORING A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN
(20-40%).
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS ON THE DELAWARE BAY
AND THE OCEAN WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE.
AS A RESULT, THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND
HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KNOTS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE REMAINING GALE
WARNINGS END, AS WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 KT
GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OCEAN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET DURING
THE DAY TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO STRONG WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT
AND SEAS 4-5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS
BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
431.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ455.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/COOPER
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...COOPER/STAARMANN
LONG TERM...COOPER/STAARMANN
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER
MARINE...AKL/COOPER
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