570
FXUS61 KPHI 011607
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1207 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND MAY BRING SOME IMPACTS
TO PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH
MID-WEEK, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. AN H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST IS FLATTENING OUT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST THAT
WILL DIVE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.
A TIGHT WESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT LIES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, AND
THAT WILL KEEP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME. WEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH, AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DEPARTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEARLY CALM. THIS WILL PROMOTE
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION, IT LOOKS AS IF TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA TO
WILMINGTON, AS WELL AS IN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE COASTS. FOR THE
PINE BARRENS OF NEW JERSEY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT.
SINCE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN EFFECT, WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, OCEAN,
BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER, AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES. THIS
ADVISORY DOES NOT INCLUDE THE COASTAL STRIP, AND IS MAINLY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF BOTH UPPER AIR AND
SURFACE FEATURES REMAINS UNCLEAR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LOW TO BECOME CUT OFF. WITH THAT SAID, MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES AT LEAST A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A RELATIVELY
BENIGN EVENT OFFERING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME FOR NOW. REGARDLESS, POPS REMAIN AROUND 20-40% ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL DURING
THIS TIME, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABLE, SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
SEE SOME RAIN, THOUGH AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHT (LESS THAN
0.10"). THE FRONT WILL USHER IN AIR THAT'S NOTABLY DRIER, BUT
NOT NECESSARILY NOTABLY COOLER. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN
A SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC.
TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
A SHORTWAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
RAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY QUICK HITTING SYSTEM,
AGAIN WITH RAIN AMOUNTS REMAINING LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD BE SEASONABLE, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET. W WINDS 10
TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS, BECOMING NW 10 KT OR LESS
AFTER 21Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING, BECOMING SW 5 TO
10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN
(20-40%).
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25 KT ON DELAWARE BAY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WITH W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO STRONG WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT
AND SEAS 4-5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS
BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
017>020-022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/COOPER
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...COOPER/STAARMANN
LONG TERM...COOPER/STAARMANN
AVIATION...COOPER/MPS
MARINE...AKL/COOPER/MPS
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