146
FXUS61 KPHI 011805
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
205 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND MAY BRING SOME IMPACTS
TO PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH
MID-WEEK, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. AN H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST IS FLATTENING OUT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST THAT
WILL DIVE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.
A TIGHT WESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT LIES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, AND
THAT WILL KEEP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME. WEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH, AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DEPARTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEARLY CALM. THIS WILL PROMOTE
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION, IT LOOKS AS IF TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA TO
WILMINGTON, AS WELL AS IN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE COASTS. FOR THE
PINE BARRENS OF NEW JERSEY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT.
SINCE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN EFFECT, WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, OCEAN,
BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER, AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES. THIS
ADVISORY DOES NOT INCLUDE THE COASTAL STRIP, AND IS MAINLY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK HIGH WELL OFFSHORE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. WHILE SKIES WILL BE FAIR EARLY
ON, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
MILDER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH LOW/MID 40S WHILE THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SITES LIKE MOUNT POCONO PA, READING PA, MORRISTOWN NJ AND
TRENTON NJ WILL HAVE MID/UPPER 30S AGAIN FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS.
ON MONDAY, A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE REGION LATER DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT, THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SINCE THERE IS ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, WE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. POPS ARE CURRENTLY 20% TO 35% FOR THOSE SPOTS MONDAY BEFORE
GOING LESS THAN 15% FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FOR OUR REGION.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY, LIKE TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING. SUNSHINE WILL FILL THE SKIES AND TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANT
WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
PREDICTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MORE GREAT WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A SHORT
INTERRUPTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DAYTIME PERIOD WED/THU/FRI
WILL HAVE NO MENTIONABLE RAINFALL (POPS LESS THAN 15%) AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EACH DAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING THE FAIR
CONDITIONS.
MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUICK MOVING SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THEN ACROSS PA/NJ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NBM PAINTS MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH 15%-25% FOR
DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ AND 25%-40% FOR MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ. WE'LL USE THIS FOR OUR FORECAST THIS CYCLE. THE
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT (LESS
THAN 1/10TH INCH). MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE WEAK SYSTEM
FOR THURSDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH IT. THE NEWEST
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS MOSTLY 25% TO 45% CHANCES FOR OUR ZONES
WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS N/W. THE GOOD NEWS WILL BE THAT THE RAINS
WILL PROBABLY BE DONE BY SATURDAY, SO WE'LL WRITE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THEN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET. W WINDS 10
TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS, BECOMING NW 10 KT OR LESS
AFTER 21Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE MORNING, BECOMING SW 5 TO
10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR EXPECTED.
MONDAY... VFR PREDOMINANTLY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS KACY/KMIV.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY... VFR EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 25 KT ON DELAWARE BAY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WITH W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY... SUB-SCA EXPECTED. FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY... LOW-END SCA GUSTS/SEAS PROBABLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THEN FAIR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.. SUB-SCA. FAIR.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
017>020-022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/COOPER
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...MPS/OHARA
MARINE...MPS/OHARA
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