841
FXUS61 KPHI 012211
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
611 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND MAY BRING SOME
IMPACTS TO PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. AN H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST IS FLATTENING OUT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST THAT
WILL DIVE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, AND THAT WILL
KEEP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DEPARTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEARLY CALM. THIS WILL PROMOTE
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION, IT LOOKS AS IF TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA TO
WILMINGTON, AS WELL AS IN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE COASTS. FOR THE
PINE BARRENS OF NEW JERSEY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT.
SINCE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN EFFECT, WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, OCEAN,
BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER, AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES. THIS
ADVISORY DOES NOT INCLUDE THE COASTAL STRIP, AND IS MAINLY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. WHILE SKIES WILL BE
FAIR EARLY ON, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS MILDER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH LOW/MID 40S WHILE
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SITES LIKE MOUNT POCONO PA, READING
PA, MORRISTOWN NJ AND TRENTON NJ WILL HAVE MID/UPPER 30S AGAIN
FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS.
ON MONDAY, A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE REGION LATER DURING THE DAY. AFTER THAT, THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SINCE THERE IS ONLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. POPS ARE CURRENTLY 20% TO 35%
FOR THOSE SPOTS MONDAY BEFORE GOING LESS THAN 15% FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FOR OUR REGION.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY, LIKE TODAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING. SUNSHINE WILL FILL THE SKIES AND TEMPS WILL
BE PLEASANT WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH PREDICTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MORE GREAT WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A SHORT
INTERRUPTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DAYTIME PERIOD WED/THU/FRI
WILL HAVE NO MENTIONABLE RAINFALL (POPS LESS THAN 15%) AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EACH DAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING
THE FAIR CONDITIONS.
MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUICK MOVING SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THEN ACROSS PA/NJ WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NBM PAINTS MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
15%-25% FOR DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ AND 25%-40% FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ. WE'LL USE THIS FOR OUR
FORECAST THIS CYCLE. THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY
KEEP PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT (LESS THAN 1/10TH INCH). MORE BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH IT.
THE NEWEST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD SHOWS MOSTLY 25% TO 45% CHANCES
FOR OUR ZONES WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS N/W. THE GOOD NEWS WILL BE
THAT THE RAINS WILL PROBABLY BE DONE BY SATURDAY, SO WE'LL
WRITE A DRY FORECAST FOR THEN.
AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TO START, THEN
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR PREDOMINANTLY. A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS KACY/KMIV.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 6 PM, ALLOWED THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH (SEAS ARE BELOW 5 FEET).
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SUB-SCA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW-END SCA GUSTS/SEAS PROBABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
017>020-022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/COOPER
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...GORSE/MPS/OHARA
MARINE...GORSE/MPS/OHARA
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