351
FXUS61 KPHI 021320
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
820 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
BY OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 40S, SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY.
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW DIGS TO THE
SOUTH, SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM THE PARENT LOW TO A
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THIS OCCURS, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY SHOULD
LEAD TO PLEASANT SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY HOWEVER
THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SO
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER IN TERMS OF REDUCING THE THREAT OF FROST
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS EFFICIENT
RADIATION COOLING AND TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 40S
OVERNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THAT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PROMOTE CHANCES
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A TRACE TO
PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE HIGH SIDE. EXPECT MODESTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS AGAIN
FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
OVERALL, SEASONABLY COOL AND BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A BIT COLDER IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, WHICH COULD BRING A
THREAT OF FROST DEVELOPMENT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ AND
DELMARVA, WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO BE ON THE
HORIZON INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE,
WITH A FEW QUICK HITTING, WEAK SYSTEMS. THE QUASI ZONAL FLOW
WILL REMAIN ALOFT, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THEN THE PATTERN CHANGE
BEGINS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
DAYTIME WILL BE DRY, BUT THE FROPA WILL BRING A 20-40% CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MANY AREAS WITH A SSW
BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
PHILLY METRO WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MEAGER
AND LIKELY LESS THAN 0.10". THURSDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND
SOMEWHAT BREEZY, BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO LOW 40S. THIS WILL YIELD A THREAT OF FROST DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
FOR DELMARVA, AND PERHAPS EVEN THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
FOR SOUTHERN NJ.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME FOR FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THE
MOMENT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN THE
FORECAST BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING, THEN
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH BUILDING CLOUD COVER FOR ILG/MIV/ACY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR PREDOMINANTLY. A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS KACY/KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS. A
CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CAUSE BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THIS PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS NEAR 3-5 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...DEAL/MPS
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...DEAL/STAARMANN/MPS
MARINE...DEAL/STAARMANN
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