551
FXUS61 KPHI 021928
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
228 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST SLIDES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TRACKS EAST AND
SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS IT
DOES, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THIS TIME AND LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD NOT
TRACK TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST, AS IT WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS ANOTHER H5 TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
MOST OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND MOST OF NEW JERSEY, AND IN
THE MID 40S OR SO ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM AROUND
PHILADELPHIA TO WILMINGTON AND OVER DELMARVA. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE
RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN WATERS.
BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR THE COAST AND THE
H5 TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA, SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY. ANY
RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO DELAWARE BEACHES AND THE
JERSEY SHORE, BUT LOW CHANCE POPS WILL EXTEND BACK TOWARDS THE
GARDEN STATE PARKWAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK TOWARDS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. QPF WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AS MUCH AS 1/10" OR
SO ALONG THE COASTS AND TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH INLAND.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
OVERALL, MOSTLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. A TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN ITS PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
EVENING WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AT NIGHT.
ALL IN ALL, MOSTLY CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS, WITH LIGHTER WINDS CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT ON AGRICULTURE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
REMAINS ACTIVE. OTHERWISE, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT, HIGHS WILL BE ~5 DEGREES WARMER WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DAYTIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A CONTINUATION OF SENSIBLE AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD BUT EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE
EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE.
BY FRIDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AS A
SERIES OF QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND
FRIDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THERE ARE NOTABLE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST FEATURES. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE STUCK
CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE WHICH CARRIES A 40-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BEYOND THIS
POINT, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED, RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE MENTIONED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. LIGHT SW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. LGT/VRB TO NEARLY CALM WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...OVERALL VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KACY
AND POSSIBLY KMIV IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT S TO SW
WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SE WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY,
TURNING W-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY,
BUT LARGELY NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/STAARMANN
LONG TERM...DESILVA/STAARMANN
AVIATION...DESILVA/MPS
MARINE...DESILVA/MPS
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