015
FXUS61 KPHI 041029
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
529 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SEQUENCE OF QUICK-
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SEASONABLY COOL AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BREEZY WNW WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
STRONG QUASI ZONAL FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TODAY, RESULTING IN A WNW GRADIENT LOCALLY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PUSH OFFSHORE.
WE'LL REMAIN IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TODAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE DIMINISHING SOME, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY, BUT WNW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHES TONIGHT, THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5-10 MPH SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO,
THEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT (LOCALLY CALM) FAVORING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION. SATURATION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
DEVELOP IN SOME SPOTS, BUT THINKING THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A FROST ADVISORY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES IN
SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ON WEDNESDAY AND OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ENTERS FROM THE WEST, WE SEE A MORE SOUTH TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
WIND THAT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST.
OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM, ARRIVES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
COLD FRONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE PA
TURNPIKE/I-195 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE TURN WINDY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30 MPH FOR MOST. THE POCONOS AND OUR COASTAL AREAS COULD
SEE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
ON THURSDAY, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY AND SETTLES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THURSDAY AND OUR WINDS
DECREASE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AS WE
GET THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S
COLD FRONT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, OUR WINDS TURN LIGHT TO CALM WITH A
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKY. OUR LOWS END UP IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S FOR MANY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST FROST (AND
POTENTIALLY SOME FREEZE) HEADLINES FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE.
FRIDAY IS THE BEGINNING OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH
ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WITH MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDING
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. AS OUR SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST, WE DO SEE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT LOOKS
TO LEAD TO WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, POPS ARE GENERALLY 60-80% AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE STAY BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS 20-
30 MPH OVERNIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
WE TREND DRIER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACH THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (30-50%)
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WE THEN TREND DRIER
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT ALSO
TURNS NOTABLY COLDER BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WE SEE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR/SKC. WNW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS MUCH OF
THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. WNW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
21Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 5-10 KTS EARLY WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS
OR LESS (LOCALLY CALM) FAVORING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER
05Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN EXCESS OF
20 KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
MARINE
WNW WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS. SEAS 4-6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME TODAY TO BELOW 25 KTS AND BELOW 5 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TODAY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS
LESSENING FURTHER TO AROUND 1-2 FEET BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY, WITH POTENTIAL
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
25-35 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ABNORMALLY LOW WATER LEVELS FOR THE LOW
TIDES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CAN LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS NAVIGATING CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KT WITH SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...GUZZO/STAARMANN
MARINE...GUZZO/STAARMANN
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