012
FXUS61 KPHI 050259
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT, WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING BOTH DUE TO THE LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING AS WELL AS A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD. AS A RESULT, GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TO OUR
SOUTH AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SW WINDS TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH
BY LATE DAY.
THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH EN ROUTE FROM LAKE ONTARIO
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEW AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES BY LATER AT NIGHT
IN THIS SYSTEM'S WAKE. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE THINGS TO NOTE WITH
THIS...1) ALONG THE FRONT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION THAT BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST
FEW THOUSAND FEET SO EVEN THOUGH ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY JUST BE
SHOWERS (THUNDER UNLIKELY) IT COULD STILL BRING WIND GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS
WOULD BE AROUND THE LATE EVENING MAINLY OVER OUR NE PA INTO NW
NJ ZONES. 2) FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL
BE SHARP PRESSURE RISES ALONG WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY STEEP WITH WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF 50+ KNOTS. AS A RESULT OF ALL
THIS, EXPECT A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AROUND THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY EXTENDING FROM AROUND BERKS COUNTY EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NJ.
WE'VE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH 6 PM WED TO 6 AM THU TO COVER
THIS THREAT AND IT BASICALLY ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN 40 PERCENT
OF THE CWA...NOT GETTING DOWN TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS
UNDER THE WATCH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AREAS EVEN SOUTH OF HERE
SEEING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55+ MPH. EXPECT THE STRONGEST OF THE
WINDS OVER ROUGHLY A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD AND THEY SHOULD BE
STARTING TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL INITIALLY BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE AXIS BRIEFLY SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BUT BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL, RANGING
FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THURSDAY
NIGHT, CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT, BUT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN NJ, WITH
A FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN PA OUTSIDE
OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND SOUTHERN NJ AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN,
THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND THE DELMARVA. THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS
ACTIVE FOR CAMDEN AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES AND POINTS SOUTH AND
WEST. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS
OF THESE AREAS IN FUTURE UPDATES.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER IMPULSE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES
WITH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AS
WELL AS WITH ITS PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME, VERY LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT, SO THUNDER APPEARS
UNLIKELY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN,
AMOUNTS GENERALLY APPEAR UNDER 0.5" AT THIS TIME. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, RAIN, AND A LATE FRONTAL PASSAGE, OVERNIGHT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK FAIRLY WARM, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ TO THE LOW-MID 50S
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PA, SOUTHERN NJ, AND THE DELMARVA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A CLOSED UPPER-LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC TO
START THE PERIOD AND IT WILL MEANDER IN THE SAME VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION, CLEARING THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GRADUAL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GRADUALLY
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE AS WELL AS A LOW TRACKS EASTWARD OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.
BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN WITH SOME SHOWERS
STILL AROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR ALL AREAS BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SUNDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE EVEN FURTHER AS A
STRONG EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS APPROACHES. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. BROAD TROUGHING
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF THE US
THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW ENGLAND, WITH A
STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH NBM
POPS CURRENTLY IN THE 30-50% RANGE AREAWIDE. SEE NO REASON TO
STRAY FROM THAT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (AROUND 20%) WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME REMAINING
MOISTURE.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE FOR RAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE EARLY WEEK
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW
AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO
SEE LOWS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 5-10 KTS EARLY WILL DIMINISH TO 5
KTS OR LESS (LOCALLY CALM) FAVORING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AFTER 05Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING VFR WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
10 TO 15 GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. EVEN STRONGER NW
WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR AT NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN AREAS OF RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN (NEAR
20%) WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF
RAIN.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT THIS ENDS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER OUR NORTHERN OCEAN
ZONES (450, 451) WITH GALES FARTHER SOUTH. SEAS INCREASE TO
AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET. ALSO, THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO ABNORMALLY LOW WATER LEVELS FOR THE LOW TIDES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CAN LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS NAVIGATING CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH TIME,
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST WIND 25-30
KT WITH SEAS 4-6 FEET IN THE MORNING, DECREASING BY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BELOW
25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY, WITH ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME WITH SEAS BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431.
STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ450-451.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ452>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/MJL
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/MJL
MARINE...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
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