211
FXUS61 KPHI 051118
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WHILE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FOR TODAY, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AS A SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL GUST UPWARDS OF
25-35 MPH AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT, THE WINDS BECOME STRONGER. THIS IS DUE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES BY
LATE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS LEADS TO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY INCREASING, ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE KEY TAKEAWAYS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF GUSTY SHOWERS,
THAT CAN BRING VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET, SO THESE SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
THESE STRONGER WINDS ,IN THE FORM OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS,
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WOULD BE EARLY
OVERNIGHT IN OUR NE PA AND NW NJ ZONES. IN GENERAL, THE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
ANOTHER TAKEAWAY IS THE WIND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. IN GENERAL, THERE WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, THERE WILL BE SHARP PRESSURE
RISES ALONG WITH THAT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY STEEP WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OF 50+ KNOTS. AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS, EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VERY STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT AROUND THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE PREVIOUS HIGH WIND WATCH WAS REPLACED WITH A WIND
ADVISORY WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF NEW JERSEY. FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE, THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITERIA BEING MET FOR
A WIND ADVISORY. OUR COASTAL COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY WERE PLACED
IN A HIGH WIND WATCH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS OF
55-60 MPH OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS START TO SUBSIDED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN A COOLER AND BREEZY
DAY, BUT NOT AS WINDY AS TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY THE POCONOS WHERE A
FEW SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S FOR MOST, 40S POCONOS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST SOUTH OF US FOR THURSDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE FRESH
CANADIAN AIR MASS. THUS, ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
LOOKS LIKELY FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE,
I.E. PHILLY SOUTH. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S, 20S POCONOS/NW NJ.
SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK IN ON FRIDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS INCREASE BUT NO PRECIP DURING THE DAY
EXPECTED. HIGHS JUMPING BACK UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 FOR MOST,
CLOSER TO 50 FOR THE POCONOS.
SHOWERS WITH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US MILD, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. PRECIP TOTALS DON'T LOOK VERY HIGH THOUGH, PROBABLY
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE COLD FRONT MEANS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
IT ON SATURDAY SHOULD ACTUALLY WARM US UP AFTER SHOWERS END AND
THE SUN RETURNS, WITH TEMPS SOARING BACK WELL INTO THE 60S...
MORE OF A WARM FRONT, REALLY, THAN A COLD FRONT.
A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT PROBABLY
STAYING DRY, WITH LOWS STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS THE MAIN ENERGY TO STAY NORTH, POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION. HIGH START
CREEPING DOWN WITH 50S POCONOS BUT STILL 60S REST OF THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM'S PASSAGE
WILL HERALD THE START OF A MUCH COOLER FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE. IT LOOKS LIKE WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE GROWING
SEASON BY THEN SHOULD END, BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE
SIGNIFICANT DURING THE CHILLY PERIOD THANKS TO DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LIKE THE POCONOS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. EVEN STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE NW WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF AROUND 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH A GALE WARNING IN
PLACE FOR THE TWO SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES AND THE DELAWARE BAY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINING OCEAN ZONES, THE STORM WATCH
WAS LEFT IN PLACE AND EXTENDED A BIT TO INCLUDE ZONES 452 AND
453 TONIGHT. THIS STORM WATCH HIGHLIGHTS THE ZONES WHERE THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR 50 KT GUSTS. SEAS ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND
7 TO 9 FEET. ANOTHER KEY POINT IS THAT THE STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ABNORMALLY LOW WATER LEVELS FOR
THE LOW TIDES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS NAVIGATING CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER, ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN ZONES, MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE DWINDLING THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS THEN REDEVELOP, PERHAPS EVEN FLIRTING WITH GALES,
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN DWINDLE AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-021.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ013-014-020-022>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-454-455.
STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ANZ450>453.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM
NEAR TERM...GUZZO
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...GUZZO/RCM
MARINE...GUZZO/RCM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page