312
FXUS61 KPHI 210534
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES
TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TOMORROW,
AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TOMORROW. AREAS THAT SEE
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL FILL BACK IN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER,
SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COOL AND WET START TO THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US COAST AMID MODEST ZONAL FLOW AND BROAD TROUGHING
ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFFSHORE
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE, RANGING MAINLY FROM 0.1"
TO 0.25" AT MOST. NOT MUCH RAIN, BUT WE'LL TAKE IT GIVEN THE
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEAR OF SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NNW WINDS 10-15 MPH.
COOLER AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
AND HIGHS SUNDAY NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. WSW WINDS 5-10 MPH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERALL SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED
TO IMPACT THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY, BUT
DETAILS ON THIS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LARGELY NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 30S. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
AREA. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE
MOMENT ASIDE FROM MORE BENEFICIAL LIGHT RAINFALL. THE WARM
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY RISING SOME OVERNIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CONTEND
WITH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY, THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER IT
EVOLVES, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SKIES ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY. THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO
BE A POST FRONTAL (COOL AND BREEZY) TYPE OF DAY, BUT AGAIN
DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AT MOST TERMINALS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WITH PERIOD
OF CALM LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 14-17Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY AT KRDG AND KABE. LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 5 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE I-95 TERMINALS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WITH
PERIODS OF CALM. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR EARLY IN LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
TUESDAY...VFR TO START, WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
MARINE
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED. A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, THEN WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAYTIME SATURDAY. SATURDAY'S DAYTIME PERIOD COULD HAVE MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...COOPER
MARINE...ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
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