340
FXUS61 KPHI 220628
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
128 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN UPPER-LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER QUEBEC WILL TRACK EASTWARD
TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH OUR AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA, AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BY MIDDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ BEFORE ALL RAIN COMES TO AN END. EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH, WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-78
SEEING GENERALLY AROUND 0.25" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
0.50" POSSIBLE. NORTH OF I-78, AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.20". TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S, WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST BY SUNSET.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED, WITH MID-UPPER 20S EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND NJ AWAY FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW-MID 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
DELMARVA, URBAN CORRIDOR, AND NJ COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER DRIER AIR IN PLACE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH A MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKY.
OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STICKS AROUND FOR SUNDAY WHICH LEADS TO A
DRY DAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR MANY WITH SOME MORE CLOUDS AS
YOU HEAD NORTH BUT THESE AREAS STILL LOOK TO BE MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOES NOT RESULT IN MUCH ASIDE FROM A LIGHT
PASSING SHOWER. ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED.
ON MONDAY, OUR SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH KEEPS THE DAY DRY
AND MAINLY CLEAR. SOME CLOUDS START TO FILTER IN BY THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
MONDAY ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
WE STAY DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. OUR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. THERE ARE THEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WE SEE BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE AREA. ONE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO CANADA
WHILE THE OTHER MOVES OUT OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AREA AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE START TO
WARM UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN WHICH IS
FOLLOWED BY TWO COLD FRONTS.
FOR THE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS, WE START TO SEE WARM AIR FILTER IN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S. BY WEDNESDAY, HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS
THE WARM MOIST AIR FILTERS IN, WE ALSO SEE INCREASING RAIN FILLING
IN BY MIDDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE POPS ARE AROUND 70%. OUR FIRST COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LOW IN CANADA THEN PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WHICH ALSO CONTINUES TO KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS AND RESULTS IN HIGHS FOR THANKSGIVING IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. ONE KEY NOTE IS THAT GIVEN THIS BEING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS AND THEIR COLD
FRONTS. SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES LOOK TO KEEP RAIN
AROUND ON THANKSGIVING WITH THE SYSTEMS BEING SLOWER. REGARDLESS
OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTS, BEHIND THEM IS NOTABLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR CEILINGS TO START, LOWERING TO IFR THROUGH
09- 11Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WITH PERIODS OF CALM. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOWEST CEILINGS.
TODAY...IFR CEILINGS TO START, LIFTING TO MVFR 14-17Z AND
EVENTUALLY LIFTING OR SCATTERING OUT TO VFR MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST, CLEARING ALL TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.
TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WIND FAVORING A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY...VFR TO START, WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL
AGAIN DECREASE TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FEET. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...COOPER
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...COOPER/GUZZO
MARINE...COOPER/GUZZO
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