810
FXUS61 KPHI 220809
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
309 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN DRY BUT COLD
WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN UPPER-LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER QUEBEC WILL TRACK EASTWARD
TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND THROUGH OUR AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA, AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BY MIDDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ BEFORE ALL RAIN COMES TO AN END. EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH, WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-78
SEEING GENERALLY AROUND 0.25" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
0.50" POSSIBLE. NORTH OF I-78, AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.20". TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S, WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST BY SUNSET.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED, WITH MID-UPPER 20S EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND NJ AWAY FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW-MID 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
DELMARVA, URBAN CORRIDOR, AND NJ COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY, WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. MOST WILL SEE NO
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM I-78 ON NORTH, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE TO SEE FLAKES (20-30%) BEING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CARBON/MONROE COUNTY IN PA AND SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ IN THE MORNING WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS, IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WILL HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRAG
A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHING IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF
RAIN LIKELY BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WON'T BE CONTINUOUS AND THIS DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM OVERALL. NBM PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR
RAINFALL > 1 INCH IS ONLY AROUND 10%, SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BENEFICIAL RAIN MORE THAN ANYTHING. TEMPERATURES TURN TO THE MILD
SIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT COMING THROUGH, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
WHERE A STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, MAKING THIS
AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN A STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER, THOUGH AT THE VERY LEAST THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR CEILINGS TO START, LOWERING TO IFR THROUGH
09- 11Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WITH PERIODS OF CALM. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOWEST CEILINGS.
TODAY...IFR CEILINGS TO START, LIFTING TO MVFR 14-17Z AND
EVENTUALLY LIFTING OR SCATTERING OUT TO VFR MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST, CLEARING ALL TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.
TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WIND FAVORING A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL
AGAIN DECREASE TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FEET. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (50%) AS WIND
GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...COOPER
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...COOPER/HOEFLICH
MARINE...COOPER/HOEFLICH
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