678
FXUS61 KPHI 221733
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1233 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY COAST CONTINUES TO
TRACK EAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM, AN H5
TROUGH WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY RESULT IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND
FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. ONE THING TO WATCH OUT FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
THE GROUND WILL NOT GET A CHANCE TO SUFFICIENTLY DRY OUT FROM
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING GIVEN THAT SUNSET IS SO
EARLY AND THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO DRY THE GROUND
OUT. WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
DUE TO THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, THAT GROUND MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND WINDS ARE NEARLY CALM. FOR NOW, NOT EXPECTING DENSE
FOG, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
THE PINE BARRENS OF NEW JERSEY AND AWAY FROM THE COASTS IN
DELMARVA. 12Z HREF SHOWING PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1
MILE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY
AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
SOME RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-78, AND THOSE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. POPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA, SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THOUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S IN DELMARVA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY, WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. MOST WILL SEE NO
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM I-78 ON NORTH, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE TO SEE FLAKES (20-30%) BEING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CARBON/MONROE COUNTY IN PA AND SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ IN THE MORNING WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS, IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WILL HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRAG
A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHING IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF
RAIN LIKELY BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WON'T BE CONTINUOUS AND THIS DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM OVERALL. NBM PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR
RAINFALL > 1 INCH IS ONLY AROUND 10%, SO THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BENEFICIAL RAIN MORE THAN ANYTHING. TEMPERATURES TURN TO THE MILD
SIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT COMING THROUGH, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
WHERE A STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, MAKING THIS
AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A TUMBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN A STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER, THOUGH AT THE VERY LEAST THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME VFR BY 21Z.
N-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...OVERALL, VFR. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN MIST/FOG DEVELOPING BY 04Z. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BR IN THE 18Z TAF, BUT THE POTENTIAL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KMIV/KACY.
NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT, BECOMING LGT/VRB. LOW CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF, LIGHT SHRA AT KABE IN
THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 KT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (50%) AS
WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
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