388
FXUS61 KPHI 230651
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
151 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE IMPULSE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TODAY, AND THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ, WITH LOW 30S IN THE DELMARVA, URBAN CORRIDOR,
AND COASTAL PLAIN. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT REMAINS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVEN'T SEEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THAT SO FAR, BUT IT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES, IF
FOG WERE TO DEVELOP, SOME ICING COULD OCCUR, PRIMARILY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
SKIES LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 50S NORTH OF I-78
AND THE MID 50S SOUTH. IN THE POCONOS AND INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN
NJ, TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. MOST
WILL BE DRY TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
(AROUND 20%) FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 30S AREAWIDE.
MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 50S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUR CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALLOWS FOR COLDER
AIR TO FILTER IN WHICH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE IN THE 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS BUT THESE LOOK TO END
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKING
PLACE. GENERALLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE
POCONOS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. WINDS DO START TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WE LOOK COMPLETELY
DRY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLOUDS DO
START TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT
ARRIVES TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH IS ATTACHED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WARM FRONT ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OFFSHORE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WARMER AIR TO FILTER IN
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE CLOUDY TUESDAY WITH RAIN STARTING
TO MOVE IN BY MIDDAY AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY EVENING.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEPENING LOW NOW MOVING INTO CANADA WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT, WE SEE LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE IN THE 30S FOR MANY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING, THE TREND
CONTINUES TO BE DRIER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AT THIS POINT. THERE IS
THE SIGNAL FOR THINGS TO TURN ON THE WINDIER SIDE AND THE COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT WHICH
RESULTS IN MORE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW, IT KEEPS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE A
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTH AND THE EXPANSIVE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WITH PERIODS OF
CALM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG, WHICH COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THIS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FOR KMIV AND KACY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGH CONFIDENCE
OVERALL.
TODAY...VFR. SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KT BY 15-17Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AND THEN BECOMING
VFR.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES AS WELL AS THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY.
NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. TONIGHT, WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT 15-20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. WIND
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BUT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1-3 FEET
THROUGH TODAY, INCREASING TO 2-4 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THEN DECREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25
KT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...COOPER
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...COOPER/GUZZO
MARINE...COOPER/GUZZO
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