516
FXUS61 KPHI 231715
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE BASE OF AN H5
TROUGH WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS
EVENING BEFORE TRACKING EAST AND MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH DEPARTS, ITS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-78, WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE POCONO MOUNTAINS. ANY QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST, AND POPS
WILL BE CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY, AND CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT TONIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE CLEARING SKIES, WINDS SHOULD BE
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
FROM DEVELOPING. NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THERE MAY BE A QUICK SURGE IN NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE, GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AND BACK TO THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET ON MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
OFFSHORE. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THOUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ON TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH IS ATTACHED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WARM FRONT ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OFFSHORE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WARMER AIR TO FILTER IN
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE CLOUDY TUESDAY WITH RAIN STARTING
TO MOVE IN BY MIDDAY AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY EVENING.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEPENING LOW NOW MOVING INTO CANADA WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT, WE SEE LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE IN THE 30S FOR MANY.
STARTING TO GET WITHIN RANGE OF THE QPF PERIOD, THOUGH NOT FULLY IN
IT YET TO CAPTURE THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE NBM PROBABILITY
OF RAINFALL OVER 1" IS LESS THAN 10% REGION-WIDE. OVERALL, THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A BENEFICIAL RAIN MORE THAN ANYTHING THOUGH
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DAMP AND
DREARY STRETCH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, USHERING IN A
STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG COLD AIR-ADVECTION
SHOULD SET UP WITH AN INCOMING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE, SETTING UP A TIGHT GRADIENT AND RUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE A BREEZY SET OF DAYS TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR BOTH THANKSGIVING AND BLACK
FRIDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY HOW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
BOTH DAYS, BUT WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PUT
AN END TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS. STILL LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH SOME MODERATION. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 050-080. W-SW WINDS 10
KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT IN
THE MORNING, BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, THOUGH CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATE AS THE
DAY GOES ON DROPPING TO MVFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE, BUT
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (40-60%) FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
NIGHT.
THURSDAY...VFR. WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 20-30
KT.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS EVENING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OCEAN AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT, THROUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
3 TO 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (50%), ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST NEARING 25
KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (50%) WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GALES
POSSIBLE (50%) WITH BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KT. SEAS MAY
NEAR 5 FEET AT TIMES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GUZZO/HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS
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