453
FXUS61 KPHI 232348
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN
DRY BUT WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE BASE OF AN H5 TROUGH WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES
THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THIS EVENING BEFORE TRACKING EAST AND MOVING OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH DEPARTS, ITS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS THE REMAINING
SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE FRONT PASSES. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER GRAZING THE REGION NORTH OF
I-80 BUT ANY QPF WILL BE MINIMAL SO POPS ARE LESS THAN 15
PERCENT FOR TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT WITH
THE DISSIPATION OF THE DAYTIME STRATOCUMULUS. DESPITE CLEARING
SKIES, WINDS SHOULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING. NOT MUCH COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S.
THERE MAY BE A QUICK SURGE IN NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE, GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AND BACK TO THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WE START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TRANQUIL WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES MOVE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS
DO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE 30S.
ON TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH IS ATTACHED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WARM FRONT ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OFFSHORE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WARMER AIR TO FILTER IN
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE CLOUDY TUESDAY WITH RAIN STARTING
TO MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS. COVERAGE DOES PICK UP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE LOW 50S TO
LOW 60S. OUR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEPENING LOW NOW MOVING INTO CANADA WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH OUR FIRST ROUND OF COLD AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE 60S FOR MOST. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE IN THE 30S FOR MANY. THE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY LOOK TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO HALF AN
INCH. THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE BENEFICIAL MORE THAN ANYTHING WITH
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEING A DAMP AND DREARY STRETCH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN MORE COLD AIR LEADING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO, AN
INCOMING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WILL SET UP A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WINDY END OF THE WEEK.
THE GENERAL MESSAGING AT THIS TIME FOR THANKSGIVING AND BLACK
FRIDAY IS THAT BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY BUT COLD AND WINDY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST
AND THEN MOVES OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
WINDY CONDITIONS. STILL LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH SOME MODERATION. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. W-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT IN
THE MORNING, BECOMING W AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MVFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE, BUT
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (40-60%) FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AROUND 25-30 KT.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS EVENING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OCEAN AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT, THROUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
3 TO 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (40-50%), ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST NEARING 25
KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (40-60%) WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
AND SEAS 4-6 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES (50-70%) WITH BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 30-35 KT. SEAS 4-
6 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...AKL/MPS
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...AKL/GUZZO/MPS
MARINE...GUZZO/MPS
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