478
FXUS61 KPHI 240546
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1246 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR MID-WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN
DRY BUT WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IT IS QUIET THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN PLACE WHEN WE
MIX OUT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-25 MPH COULD COME
LATER THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE INCOMING HIGH GETS CLOSER. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH
40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM APPROACHING, CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. THIS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT
COMPLETELY. LOWS GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ON TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA WHICH IS ATTACHED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WARM FRONT ALONG WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WARMER
AIR TO FILTER IN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE CLOUDY
TUESDAY WITH RAIN STARTING TO MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING TO
MIDDAY HOURS. COVERAGE DOES PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. OUR LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEPENING LOW NOW MOVING INTO CANADA WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH OUR FIRST ROUND OF COLD AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE 60S FOR MOST. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE IN THE 30S FOR MANY. THE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY LOOK TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO HALF AN
INCH. THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE BENEFICIAL MORE THAN ANYTHING WITH
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEING A DAMP AND DREARY STRETCH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN MORE COLD AIR LEADING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO, AN
INCOMING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WILL SET UP A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WINDY END OF THE WEEK.
THE GENERAL MESSAGING AT THIS TIME FOR THANKSGIVING AND BLACK
FRIDAY IS THAT BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY BUT COLD AND WINDY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST
AND THEN MOVES OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
WINDY CONDITIONS. STILL LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH SOME MODERATION. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR/SKC. WEST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 20
KT IN THE MORNING, BECOMING W/WSW AROUND 5 TO 8 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MVFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE, BUT
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (40-60%) FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AROUND 25-30 KT.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AS WIND GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 25
KT AT TIMES. THE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG
INLET AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.
ONCE THE SCA EXPIRES, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (40-50%), ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST NEARING 25
KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (40-60%) WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
AND SEAS 4-6 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES (50-70%) WITH BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 30-35 KT. SEAS 4-
6 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-
451.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH
MARINE...GUZZO/HOEFLICH
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