467
FXUS61 KPHI 241037
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
537 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY, BRINGING THE START OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IT IS QUIET THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN PLACE WHEN WE
MIX OUT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-25 MPH COULD COME
LATER THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE INCOMING HIGH GETS CLOSER. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH
40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM APPROACHING, CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. THIS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT
COMPLETELY. LOWS GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE OVERCAST SKIES WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN PA
AND NORTHERN NJ, AND IN THE LOW 50S FOR THE DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. POPS WILL BE IN THE 30-50% CHANCE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. WITH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND AMIDST CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION, WEDNESDAY WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ENDING RAIN CHANCES. BY THE TIME ALL IS
SAID AND DONE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 30S AREAWIDE. IN ADDITION, GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 30 MPH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO WINDCHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S, AND
POTENTIALLY THE TEENS ACROSS THE POCONOS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT BOTH DAYS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S
FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. BOTH DAYS WILL BE BREEZY, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.
ASIDE FROM BEING BRISK, IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY. WITH THAT SAID, THESE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TO SEE IF SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY CAN MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST TO REACH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND FAR
NORTHERN NJ.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WINDS WILL RELAX, BUT IT WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN TO REBOUND A
BIT. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST, WHICH IS TO BE
EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE, BUT OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST
COULD BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 20
KT IN THE MORNING, BECOMING W/WSW AROUND 5 TO 8 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AS WIND GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 25
KT AT TIMES. NO MARINE HEADLINES ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.
ONCE THE SCA EXPIRES, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS BELOW 25
KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
(40- 50%) ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO
15-25 KT. SEAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH GALES POSSIBLE (40-50%). NORTHWEST WIND 20-30 KT,
POTENTIALLY NEAR 35 KT, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. SEAS BELOW 4-6 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-
451.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...COOPER/HOEFLICH
MARINE...COOPER/HOEFLICH
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