843
FXUS61 KPHI 241717
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1217 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING THE START OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PASS
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THAT LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
TAP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THAT WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST STARTING AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE SPREADING EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WINDS
BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY BOTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
IN THE URBAN AREAS, DELMARVA, AND ALONG THE COASTS. A MILD DAY
ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FALL LINE AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
THAT WARM FRONT CAN GET ON TUESDAY WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT
GETS AND HOW FAR NORTH THAT WARMTH SPREADS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ, AND IN THE LOW 50S
FOR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE. POPS WILL BE IN THE 30-50% CHANCE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. WITH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND AMIDST CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION, WEDNESDAY WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ENDING RAIN CHANCES. BY THE TIME ALL IS
SAID AND DONE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 30S AREAWIDE. IN ADDITION, GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 30 MPH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO WINDCHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S, AND
POTENTIALLY THE TEENS ACROSS THE POCONOS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT BOTH DAYS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S
FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. BOTH DAYS WILL BE BREEZY, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.
ASIDE FROM BEING BRISK, IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY. WITH THAT SAID, THESE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TO SEE IF SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY CAN MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST TO REACH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND FAR
NORTHERN NJ.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WINDS WILL RELAX, BUT IT WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN TO REBOUND A
BIT. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST, WHICH IS TO BE
EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE, BUT OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST
COULD BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT BY 20Z
OR SO. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S WINDS, BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MOST
TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, THEN MVFR CONDS IN RA STARTING AFTER
18Z FOR KRDG/KABE AND AFTER 21Z FOR KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG. S WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AS WIDESPREAD WIND
GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 25 KT.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, THEN S 5 TO 10 KT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE IN THE
DAY. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET, BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
(40- 50%) ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO
15-25 KT. SEAS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH GALES POSSIBLE (40-50%). NORTHWEST WIND 20-30 KT,
POTENTIALLY NEAR 35 KT, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. SEAS BELOW 4-6 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...COOPER/MPS
MARINE...COOPER/MPS
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