808
FXUS61 KPHI 251108
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LATER TODAY, BRINGING
THE START OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE
AREA WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ALTANTIC AREA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
IN TO END THE WEEK AND FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY GOES ON. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS WARM-AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AND SYNOPTIC LIFT STRENGTHENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL INCH TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY, PUSHING THROUGH
DELMARVA AND SOUTH JERSEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES IN AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN OFF
AND ON RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST, WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR SOUTH JERSEY AND
DELMARVA, AND MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WON'T
FALL VERY MUCH WITH THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION NEARLY CANCELING OUT THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS TEMPERATURES LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
THERE ACTUALLY COULD BE A BIT OF A DRY SLOT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO SOAR INTO THE 60S UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER THOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN AS THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING, USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS WITH STRONG COLD-AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING WINDS.
ALL IN ALL, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO JUST BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
0.25" TO 0.75" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER
DELMARVA AND SOUTH JERSEY COULD RESULT IN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TOMORROW MORNING WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA.
HOWEVER, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS OUR AREA.
A COLD WEST WIND WILL BRING DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CLEARING
SKIES FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD, WE'LL
GET A PREVIEW OF EARLY WINTER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY ACROSS QUEBEC WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA, BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS OR NORTH NJ ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
HIGHS FRI/SAT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S MOST AREAS WITH MID/UPPER
30S FOR NW MOST SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S FRI AND SAT MORNINGS.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR TEMPS.
THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA LATER SAT AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPS SUN/MON. THE MILDER AIR ARRIVES WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR RAINS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SUNDAY (20%) THEN A CHANCE
FOR MONDAY (AROUND 30%)
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY GOES ON.
RAIN MOVES INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AROUND 18Z-19Z, THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND SOUTH JERSEY TERMINALS AROUND 20Z-21Z. LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR NOT MUCH LONGER AFTER LIGHT RAIN BEGINS.
THINKING MVFR RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AROUND 20Z-22Z FOR KRDG/KABE,
22Z-01Z FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS, AND 00Z-03Z FOR THE
SOUTH JERSEY TERMINALS. WINDS PICK UP AROUND 14Z-15Z, WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN PREVAILING VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS.
TONIGHT...MVFR TO START WITH IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS MOVING IN
AS RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO
TAKE OVER AT THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z.
KACY/KMIV MAY STAY MVFR LONGER, THOUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DROP
DOWN TO IFR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS START OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
04Z-07Z, AROUND 5-10 KT. A BRISK LOW- LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR PART OF THE NIGHT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE PROBABILITY AROUND
25-35% OF SEEING LIFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE
OVERALL.
WEDNESDAY... WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATE AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT... ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES (TTN) FOR THE
EVENING, OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUING.
THU/FRIDAY... VFR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL OCEAN
ZONES BEGINNING 7 PM TONIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25
KT THIS EVENING AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5
FEET, KEEPING THE SCA IN PLACE. ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL RAMP UP OUT OF THE WEST, BACK ABOVE
SCA-LEVELS.
FOR DELAWARE BAY, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKER OVER THE BAY
AND NOT REACH SCA CRITERIA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW
EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, SCA CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME,
AND INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AS STRONG LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS
AND A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WED NIGHT. EXCEPT FOR A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NJ WATERS WED EVENING,
IT'LL BE FAIR THE REST OF THE TIME. WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE
LEVELS LATER THU NIGHT AND GALE FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED
OUTLOOK...
GALES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH, SLOWLY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER THAT INTO SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY, LOW-END SCA GUSTS MAY DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCES
(20%) FOR RAIN LATER SUNDAY. A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY (30%).
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
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