532
FXUS61 KPHI 251733
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1233 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON LATER TODAY, BRINGING
THE START OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE
AREA WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ALTANTIC AREA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD IN TO END THE WEEK AND FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW LIES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AS THAT SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK OVER
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, RAIN DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOMES MORE STEADY AND PERSISTENT INTO THIS EVENING WITH
THAT FIRST LOW AND WARM FRONT. AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO, RAIN
TAPERS OFF, AND THEN IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT SECOND WARM FRONT WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW
JERSEY AS ML MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE UP TO 300 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6
KM OF BULK SHEAR TO ALLOW A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE TO
DEVELOP.
AS THAT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PHILADELPHIA TO WILMINGTON. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 INCH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS OUR AREA.
A COLD WEST WIND WILL BRING DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CLEARING
SKIES FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD, WE'LL
GET A PREVIEW OF EARLY WINTER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY ACROSS QUEBEC WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA, BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS OR NORTH NJ ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
HIGHS FRI/SAT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S MOST AREAS WITH MID/UPPER
30S FOR NW MOST SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S FRI AND SAT MORNINGS.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR TEMPS.
THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA LATER SAT AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPS SUN/MON. THE MILDER AIR ARRIVES WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR RAINS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SUNDAY (20%) THEN A CHANCE
FOR MONDAY (AROUND 30%)
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM 20Z TO 22Z AS RA DEVELOPS. S TO SE WINDS LESS THAN 10
KT. 40 KT OF SW LLWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS AFTER 22Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING, LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH CIGS AS LOW AS LIFR TONIGHT IN RA
AND STRATUS. ALTHOUGH RAIN ENDS BY 05Z, VSBYS WILL BE
RESTRICTED IN BR. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT S WINDS. 40 TO 45 KT OF SW LLWS THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
WEDNESDAY...IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME
SHRA WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z OR SO. CONDS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z. S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT... ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES (TTN) FOR THE
EVENING, OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUING.
THU/FRIDAY... VFR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A LULL IN 25 KT GUSTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WINDS RAMP BACK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE SCA
IN EFFECT. WINDS ON DELAWARE BAY WILL BE A BIT LOWER, HENCE NO
SCA FOR THOSE WATERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT, BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND FOG TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
GALES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH, SLOWLY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER THAT INTO SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY, LOW-END SCA GUSTS MAY DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCES
(20%) FOR RAIN LATER SUNDAY. A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY (30%).
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...MPS/OHARA
MARINE...MPS/OHARA
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