684
FXUS61 KPHI 260401
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1101 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TODAY
BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CROSS
NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN TO END THE WEEK AND FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW LIES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT IS STRUGGLING TO LIFT NORTH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN WEST OF THE FALL LINE AS COLD AIR
DAMMING HAS BEEN A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST. AS A RESULT, SOME
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS AS VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS A QUARTER MILE IS EXPECTED IN SOME SPOTS. ANOTHER WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, RAIN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
STEADY AND PERSISTENT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THAT FIRST LOW
AND WARM FRONT. AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO, RAIN TAPERS OFF, AND THEN
IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FOG AND
LOW STRATUS.
A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT SECOND WARM FRONT WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW
JERSEY AS ML MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE UP TO 300 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6
KM OF BULK SHEAR TO ALLOW A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE TO
DEVELOP.
AS THAT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PHILADELPHIA TO WILMINGTON. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 INCH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WE SEE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH WINDS ALSO INCREASING OUT OF THE
WEST. WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE TO 30-35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA
WITH UPWARDS OF 40 MPH IN THE POCONOS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND POTENTIALLY THE TEENS IN THE POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
EARLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO CLEAR THE AREA.
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN. FOR THANKSGIVING, THE DAY LOOKS DRY BUT
COLD AND WINDY. HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST AT 30-40 MPH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE 20S. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 35-45 MPH. IN THIS SET-UP, WITH ALL THE COLD AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION, THERE WILL BE ONGOING LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA. DUE TO THE WIND SHIFT TO HAVE A
MORE NW COMPONENT, WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUR WINDS DO START TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN AND MOVES OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, IT IS A COLDER START WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S. BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS. ON MONDAY, HIGHS REACH INTO
THE 40S FOR MOST. THERE IS ALSO THE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING IFR WITH CIGS AS LOW AS LIFR
TONIGHT IN RA AND STRATUS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT KRDG/KABE AS
THE WARM FRONT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS LOW OF CONDITIONS MAKING IT TO THE
REMAINING TERMINALS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT VSBYS LOWER THAN A 1/2SM
AT KRDG/KABE. ALTHOUGH RAIN ENDS BY 05Z, VSBYS WILL BE
RESTRICTED IN BR. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z.
LIGHT S WINDS. 40 TO 45 KT OF SW LLWS THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
WEDNESDAY...IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME
SHRA WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z OR SO. CONDS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z. S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. SOUTH WIND 5-10 KNOTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A LULL IN 25 KT GUSTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WINDS RAMP BACK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE SCA
IN EFFECT. WINDS ON DELAWARE BAY WILL BE A BIT LOWER, HENCE NO
SCA FOR THOSE WATERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT, BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND FOG TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND 25-30 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES WITH A WEST WIND OF 35-40 KT AND SEAS OF
5-7 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS AND
SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY BUT WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY
SUBSIDED THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-101.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...AKL/HOEFLICH/MPS
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...AKL/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/MPS
MARINE...GUZZO/MPS
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