729
FXUS61 KPHI 261123
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
623 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARDS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT ARRIVE
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WARM FRONT IS TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT HAS NOT HAD
MUCH PROBLEM MOVING THROUGH NEW JERSEY, BUT WITH SOME COLD AIR
DAMMING IN PLACE WEST OF THE FALL LINE, IT IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE
THROUGH OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. AS A RESULT, FOG, SOME OF
IT DENSE, HAS DEVELOPED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
BERKS/LEHIGH/NORTHAMPTON/CARBON/MONROE AS VISIBILITY AS LOW AS
A QUARTER OF A MILE HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOES UNTIL 10 AM, BUT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELED EARLY
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT GOES THROUGH.
ELSEWHERE, A ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTH JERSEY AS A
SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FROM THIS, AND THIS ROUND OF RAIN
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
FOR TODAY, THE AREA WILL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A MAIN
COLD FRONT PASSING LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. OUR CLIMATE SITES SHOULD NOT
THREATEN ANY RECORDS THOUGH WITH FORECASTED HIGHS AROUND 3 TO 6
DEGREES BELOW THE DAILY RECORDS. IT WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY FOR MOST
OF THE DAY, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. SOME BREAKS OF SUN MAY ACTUALLY COME OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS WELL. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED DOWNPOURS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM. THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH AND SHOWER CHANCES FALL OFF WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS PICKING UP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH, WITH PEAK
GUSTS UPWARD OF 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,
WITH UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GUSTS THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES AND THE GUSTS WILL
BE 30 TO 40 MPH FOR FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORY FLAGS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THRU THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THU/FRI WITH THE COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THU/FRI WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH SOME 30S FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. LOWS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES BOTH THU/FRI NIGHTS. WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THU/FRI AND IN THE TEENS THU NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 40S FOR MOST SPOTS AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S.
THESE TEMPS ARE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
MILDER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY TOO.
READINGS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BOTH DAYS. THE MILDER READINGS DO COME WITH A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAINS. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES (20%)
FOR SUNDAY AND THEN HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THESE RAINS ARE THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
BEYOND THAT, THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A SECONDARY LOW MAY AFFECT THE
AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM. CHILLY AIR WILL ALREADY HAVE
ARRIVED BEHIND THE EARLIER DISTURBANCE SO TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE
RUNNING A BIT BELOW TUESDAY. WE WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE NBM FOR
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY ATTM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY....LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE MORNING, IMPROVING TO MVFR AND QUICKLY
UP TO VFR BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH JERSEY
TERMINALS HAVE BEEN MVFR/VFR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD
COME DOWN TO IFR ESPECIALLY ONCE RAINFALL MOVES OUT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS. WINDS SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-10 KT.
TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WITH 10-20 KT SUSTAINED AND 20-30 KT GUSTS BETWEEN 23Z
AND 01Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY... VFR. GUSTY WINDS THU./FRI.
SUNDAY... SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ARRIVING.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES TODAY AS
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET. NO MARINE HEADLINES ON DELAWARE BAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KT TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS WITH WINDS RAMPING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS
AFTER 00Z WILL BE AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE WITH WEST WINDS AROUND
25 KTS AND GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS. FAIR WEATHER.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY... GALE WATCH CONTINUES WITH STRENGTHENING
WINDS AND GUSTS 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. FAIR.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT... LOWERING WINDS AND SEAS THRU THE PERIOD WITH
SUB-SCA BY SATURDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page