774
FXUS61 KPHI 261739 AAA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1239 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ATTACHED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND FRONT ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM
MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
WARM FRONT STRUGGLING TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARDS SUNSET. THIS
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BRIEFLY CLEAR AS TEMPS BRIEFLY WARM UP TO
THE 60S.
IT WON'T LAST HOWEVER, AS STRONG COLD FRONT (CLEARLY VISIBLE
WITH LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE ACROSS WESTERN PA AND NY PRESENTLY)
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION NEAR OR NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET.
WE'LL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO OUR REGION WITH THE FRONT. SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH
CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT, BUT OVERALL GUSTS SHOULD STAY
JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID, IT MAY FEEL LIKE
QUITE A JOLT SINCE UNTIL THE PASSAGE, WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE 10
KTS OR LESS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
OVERALL IT TO REMAIN BREEZY THRU THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH. SKIES WILL PARTLY CLEAR OUT AGAIN POST FRONT AND TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY FALL, WITH MOST AREAS ENDING THE NIGHT IN THE 30S, 20S
IN THE POCONOS.
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS
WITH TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN, WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SHOULD STAY DRY, IT WON'T FEEL VERY NICE
WITH HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING TO THE LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST, 30S IN
THE POCONOS. WEASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST 30-40 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EAST OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
THE GUSTS WILL BE 30 TO 40 MPH FOR FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORY FLAGS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION THRU THE PERIOD. A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THU NIGHT/FRI WITH THE COLDER
AIR FROM CANADA REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS FRI WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME 30S FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.
LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES BOTH THU/FRI NIGHTS.
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THU/FRI AND IN THE
TEENS THU NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 40S FOR MOST SPOTS AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S.
THESE TEMPS ARE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
MILDER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY TOO.
READINGS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BOTH DAYS. THE MILDER READINGS DO COME WITH A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAINS. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES (20%)
FOR SUNDAY AND THEN HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THESE RAINS ARE THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
BEYOND THAT, THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A SECONDARY LOW MAY AFFECT THE
AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM. CHILLY AIR WILL ALREADY HAVE
ARRIVED BEHIND THE EARLIER DISTURBANCE SO TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE
RUNNING A BIT BELOW TUESDAY. WE WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE NBM FOR
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY ATTM.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU TONIGHT....LIFR/IFR SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR TOWARDS
SUNSET WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. TOWARDS 0Z, GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT (WHICH
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SHOWERS), WITH 10-20 KT SUSTAINED
AND 20-30 KT GUSTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR, THOUGH BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY MAY
OCCUR WITH SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS CLOSER
TO 20 KTS IN THE MORNING AND THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY... VFR. GUSTY WINDS THU./FRI.
SUNDAY... SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ARRIVING.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPANDS TO ALL MARINE ZONE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE EARLY-MID EVENING, WITH
WINDS RAMPING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 00Z WILL
BE AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES CAN'T BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR JUST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS
4 TO 6 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY, 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY... GALE WATCH CONTINUES WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND GUSTS 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. FAIR.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT... LOWERING WINDS AND SEAS THRU THE PERIOD WITH
SUB-SCA BY SATURDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...OHARA/RCM
MARINE...OHARA/RCM
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